超长信用债探微跟踪：2.4%的超长债值得追吗?

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current rally in ultra - long credit bonds is a sentiment - driven "technical rebound." The sustainability of this rally largely depends on the performance of the interest - rate bond market. Given the insufficient conditions for a trend - based upward movement, such as local bond supply pressure, weak core buying power, and limited room for credit spread compression, it is recommended to adopt a trading - range strategy. Investors should closely monitor marginal changes in central bank monetary policy signals and stock market performance and set timely profit - taking targets. [5][45] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Market Characteristics - Ultra - long - end bonds led the market recovery. During the week of January 19 - 23, 2026, the bond market rebounded under the policy expectation of "room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts" and the large - scale MLF injection by the central bank. Yields of various bond varieties mostly declined, and ultra - long credit bonds strengthened. The number of outstanding ultra - long credit bonds with a yield of 2.4% - 2.5% increased to 357 compared to the previous week. [2][13] 3.2 Primary Issuance Situation - The subscription sentiment for new ultra - long urban investment bonds increased. The total supply of new ultra - long credit bonds this week was 10.27 billion, with a slight increase. The issuance rate of new ultra - long urban investment bonds dropped to around 2.6%, while the overall rate of new ultra - long industrial bonds increased due to the relatively high coupon of Yangzhou Jiankong's new bond. Despite the hot secondary - market trading of ultra - long bonds and the central bank's strong intention to support the liquidity, the subscription enthusiasm for new ultra - long industrial bonds declined, and only the subscription sentiment for new ultra - long urban investment bonds improved. [3][22] 3.3 Secondary Trading Performance - Ultra - long credit bond indices followed the upward trend. The ultra - long Treasury bonds performed strongly this week. Due to the anxiety of investors who missed the opportunity, they chased other long - duration bond varieties passively, leading to a short - squeeze situation in ultra - long credit bonds. Compared with the previous week, the ChinaBond full - price indices of AA+ credit bonds with maturities of 7 - 10 years and over 10 years increased by 0.29% and 0.35% respectively, outperforming long - end secondary bonds and medium - to - short - term credit bonds. [4][30] - The trading activity of ultra - long credit bonds improved. The average trading yield of over - 10 - year general - credit bonds declined significantly. The yields of over - 10 - year urban investment bonds and industrial bonds decreased by 12bp and 7bp respectively compared to the previous week. Meanwhile, the trading volume also increased. The number of trading transactions of ultra - long general - credit bonds rebounded to 390, and the weekly trading volume of 7 - 10 - year industrial bonds exceeded 200 again. [4][32] - The TKN ratio of 7 - 10 - year general - credit bonds rebounded to 74%. The trading direction in the past two weeks shifted to low - valuation transactions, indicating a significant recovery in the sentiment of going long on long - term bonds. [4] - In terms of investor structure, public funds and wealth management products remained cautious about long - duration and illiquid bond varieties. Funds only slightly increased their holdings of 7 - 10 - year bonds. Insurance companies and other institutions are the main buyers of ultra - long non - financial credit bonds, but due to the expected slowdown in premium income growth and the positive outlook for the stock market, the incremental demand for bond investment from insurance funds may weaken, and their role as the "stabilizer" of ultra - long bonds is being challenged. [4][43]