白银牛市：价格破 100 怎么看

Group 1: Silver Market Overview - Since 2025, silver prices have surged, reaching new highs, primarily driven by industrial and financial demand[1] - In 2025, the price of silver rose from $29.4 to $72.0 per ounce, marking a 144.8% increase, while gold increased by 62.8%[8] - As of January 27, 2026, silver prices reached $111.6 per ounce in the spot market, a 50.3% increase since the beginning of the year[8] Group 2: Demand Dynamics - Industrial demand is the core driver of silver prices, accounting for 58.5% of total demand in 2024, with significant contributions from solar energy and electric vehicles[22] - The global silver supply is projected at 1.02 billion ounces in 2024, with 81% from mining and 19% from recycling[19] - The silver supply-demand gap has been evident since 2020 and is expected to persist until 2025, supporting price increases[24] Group 3: Price Volatility and Speculation - Silver's financial attributes lead to greater price volatility compared to gold, attracting speculative investments[14] - The increase in non-commercial long positions in silver futures often correlates with rising prices, indicating bullish market sentiment[25] - The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) locks up physical silver, reducing market liquidity and potentially exacerbating price spikes[29] Group 4: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Silver has experienced four notable price surges in the past 50 years, with the most recent driven by geopolitical risks and monetary system instability since 2024[16] - The average price increase ratio of silver to gold during past bull markets has been between 1.2 and 2.8, with the current ratio reaching 2.8 since 2026[41] - Long-term support for silver prices is expected from emerging industries and potential strategic asset recognition by governments[34]