资产配置日报：科技，轮动下一站-20260128

Group 1 - The report indicates that the stock market is experiencing a differentiated trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly loosening its "4140 constraint," rising by 0.27% to 4151 points, while the ChiNext and small-cap stocks have seen a pullback after leading the market previously [1] - The overall market remains in a fluctuating framework, with short-term upward pressure on indices, while the mid-cap indices are more favorable for participation [2] - The non-ferrous metals sector has reached a historical high in terms of crowding, with significant increases in various metal indices, indicating strong performance driven by impressive earnings and rising commodity prices [2] Group 2 - The technology sector is expected to see a rotation, potentially moving towards upstream areas such as PCB materials and semiconductor equipment, following a strong performance in 2025 [3] - The report highlights a narrative around cloud service price increases, with major companies like Google and Amazon announcing significant price hikes, which could benefit cloud service providers and related sectors [3] - The Hong Kong stock market shows a continued trend of dividend recovery, with indices reflecting strong performance, particularly in technology and innovative pharmaceuticals [3] Group 3 - The central bank maintains a net injection of liquidity despite the pressure of large reverse repos maturing, indicating a supportive stance for the market [4] - The report discusses potential new monetary policy tools that may be introduced by the central bank, which could enhance liquidity management and support market expectations [5][6] - The bond market is expected to remain in a range-bound state, with short-term rates stable and long-term rates fluctuating within a defined range [6] Group 4 - The commodity market is seeing a resurgence in bullish sentiment, particularly in precious metals and non-ferrous sectors, with significant inflows of capital into these areas [7] - Gold prices are reaching new highs driven by a combination of dollar credit reassessment and geopolitical risks, indicating strong demand for safe-haven assets [8] - The aluminum market is experiencing a rally as funds shift towards assets with financial attributes, reflecting a broader trend of capital moving away from overvalued sectors [9]