中银晨会聚焦-20260129

Core Insights - The report highlights that the chemical industry is nearing a cyclical turning point, with new materials poised for significant growth due to rapid downstream demand development in 2026 [3][6] - The current valuation of the chemical industry is low, and measures such as "anti-involution" are expected to catalyze a recovery in industry profitability [3][6] Strategy Research - Clawdbot is transforming personal AI assistants from passive tools to proactive, convenient, and privatized "digital partners," indicating a significant investment potential in AI agents and related industries such as cloud services and computing power [2][5] Chemical Industry Overview - The chemical industry experienced low prosperity in 2025, with the expansion phase nearing its end. The "anti-involution" measures are expected to optimize the supply-demand structure and improve industry conditions [3][9] - As of November 2025, the PPI for industrial products, production materials, and the chemical industry has shown negative growth for 38 consecutive months, marking the second-longest period of negative growth since 2012-2016 [7] - The fixed assets in the basic chemical industry reached 14,628.58 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 15.56% as of Q3 2025, but the growth rate of ongoing projects has turned negative for the first time in nearly four years [8] Demand and Supply Dynamics - Domestic real estate demand is under pressure, while demand for automobiles and chemical fibers remains strong. The chemical product demand is expected to continue growing due to supportive policies and rapid development in downstream industries like new energy and AI [10] - The global oil market is anticipated to remain oversupplied in 2026, with Brent crude oil prices expected to stabilize between $50 and $70 per barrel [11] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the chemical industry, recommending investments in traditional chemical leaders and companies involved in new materials, as well as energy central enterprises focusing on quality improvement [13][14] - Specific recommendations include companies like Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and China Petroleum, among others, which are expected to benefit from the recovery in industry conditions [13][14][15]