美联储是否会屈从政治压力？

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy and Political Pressure - The Federal Reserve maintained the policy interest rate at 3.50%-3.75% after three consecutive rate cuts in September, October, and December 2025, marking the first pause in rate cuts in 2026[11] - The voting results showed 10 votes in favor and 2 against, with dissenting votes advocating for a 25 basis point cut, reflecting political pressure on the Fed's independence[11] - At least one-third of the questions during the press conference focused on the Fed's independence and political pressure, indicating heightened concerns in the market[12] Group 2: Trump's Influence and Challenges - Trump's political pressure on the Fed has intensified, including threats to sue Chairman Powell and push for the removal of Governor Cook, reflecting his lack of confidence in controlling the Fed[13] - The likelihood of Kevin Hassett being nominated as the next Fed Chair has significantly decreased, with Rick Rieder emerging as the leading candidate at 37% probability, compared to Hassett's 7%[17] - The changing dynamics in the nomination process suggest that Trump's ability to influence the Fed is becoming more challenging, as potential candidates show varying degrees of independence from his administration[21] Group 3: Future Rate Cuts and Economic Outlook - The Fed is expected to adopt a "hawkish resistance" stance during Powell's term, likely delaying rate cuts until June 2026, with a potential for about two rate cuts thereafter[26] - Economic indicators suggest that the U.S. job market will remain weak, with inflation expected to stabilize, allowing for some room for rate cuts without triggering inflationary pressures[27] - The Fed's independence is crucial to avoid a repeat of the 1970s inflation crisis, as political interference could lead to uncontrolled inflation and increased market volatility[29]