地缘扰动叠加美元走弱，铂钯延续震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - As of the close on January 26, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 694.8 yuan/gram, with a decline of -0.17%; the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 504 yuan/gram, with a decline of -1.80% [1] - Due to geopolitical risks and a weakening US dollar, platinum prices are expected to remain volatile and slightly bullish in the short term, and investors can look for opportunities to buy on dips. In the long term, the supply side in South Africa has risks, while the demand side is in a structural expansion stage [2] - Due to the weakening US dollar, geopolitical disturbances, and supply uncertainties, palladium prices are expected to remain volatile and slightly bullish in the short term, and investors can look for opportunities to buy on dips. Although the long - term supply - demand of palladium tends to be loose, the short - term spot shortage supports the price [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Platinum - Price: As of January 26, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 694.8 yuan/gram, with a decline of -0.17% [1] - Main Logic: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East and a weakening US dollar support platinum prices. However, the nomination of the new Fed chairman and US tariff expectations on platinum and palladium bring short - term uncertainties. In the long term, South Africa has supply risks, and the demand side is in a structural expansion stage [2] - Outlook: Volatile and slightly bullish. The healthy supply - demand fundamentals and positive macro expectations are expected to drive platinum prices to be volatile and slightly bullish [2] Palladium - Price: As of January 26, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 504 yuan/gram, with a decline of -1.80% [1] - Main Logic: In addition to the weakening US dollar and geopolitical disturbances, the supply side has significant uncertainties. The US investigation report on Russian palladium imports has not been released, and the spot shortage supports the price. The demand side faces structural pressure [3] - Outlook: Volatile and slightly bullish. The spot shortage and relatively favorable macro environment are expected to drive palladium prices to be volatile and slightly bullish [3] Commodity Index - Composite Index: No specific data provided [51] - Specialty Index: The commodity index was 2529.70, up 1.21%; the commodity 20 index was 2919.66, up 1.52%; the industrial products index was 2378.08, up 0.89% [52] - Sector Index: The non - ferrous metals index on January 28, 2026, had a daily increase of 1.47%, a 5 - day increase of 3.19%, a 1 - month increase of 8.00%, and a year - to - date increase of 7.61% [54]