鸽派预期再定价，?价加速创历史新

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The expectation of a more dovish and marginally less independent Federal Reserve is rising, and the spillover of sovereign debt and currency hedging demand has pushed precious metals to accelerate their upward movement. Gold has broken through key integer levels and risen with increasing volume under the dominance of allocation funds, while silver has followed with amplified elasticity, but trading and volatility risks have also increased, and structural differentiation has become more apparent [1]. - Gold's upward trend continues and hits a new high. The resonance of monetary policy expectations and hedging allocation is formed. In the short term, attention should be paid to the increase in volatility. Silver's high - elasticity rise continues, but the volatility is significantly amplified, and trading - level constraints increase. In the short term, it is more likely to fluctuate and digest [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Viewpoint: The upward trend continues and hits a new high. The resonance of monetary policy expectations and hedging allocation is formed. In the short term, attention should be paid to the increase in volatility [2]. - Logic: The market's repricing of looser future monetary policy continues. The dovish expectation around the next Federal Reserve Chairman is rising, which strengthens the attractiveness of non - interest - bearing assets. At the same time, sovereign debt and currency are under pressure, and geopolitical uncertainties are rising. Funds are flowing to safe - haven assets such as gold, pushing the gold price to break through $5400 per ounce and rise with increasing volume. The allocation and options sides both reflect the willingness to price the upward risk. Gold continues to show the characteristics of low volatility and strong trend among precious metals [2]. - Outlook: In the medium term, the logic is solid under the resonance of monetary policy expectations, hedging allocation, and de - credit narrative. In the short term, there may be an increase in volatility and profit - taking, but it is still attractive for allocation during the回调 [2]. Silver - Viewpoint: The high - elasticity rise continues, but the volatility is significantly amplified, and trading - level constraints increase. In the short term, it is more likely to fluctuate and digest [2]. - Logic: Silver strengthens with the overall precious metals, and the stage increase continues to expand, but the price volatility is significantly higher than that of gold. In the context of rapid upward movement, the requirements for risk management on the trading side increase, and the marginal impact of capital and sentiment changes on the silver price is enhanced. Compared with gold, silver is more sensitive to liquidity and speculative sentiment, and the risk of retracement at high levels is also accumulating [2]. - Outlook: In the medium term, it is still supported by the macro - logic dominated by gold, but in the short term, it needs to release the volatility pressure through high - level fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the impact of capital re - balance and volatility changes on the rhythm [2]. Commodity Index - Special Index: The commodity index is 2529.70, up 1.21%; the commodity 20 index is 2919.66, up 1.52%; the industrial products index is 2378.08, up 0.89%; the PPI commodity index is 1474.48, up 1.29% [45]. - Plate Index: The precious metals index on January 28, 2026, is 5155.66, with a daily increase of 3.28%, a 5 - day increase of 13.83%, a 1 - month increase of 29.58%, and a year - to - date increase of 34.82% [46].