淡季驱动有限，盘?震荡运

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [7]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The driving force in the off - season is limited, and the market is oscillating. Steel mill resumption is slow, high iron ore shipments and inventories suppress the market valuation. The first round of coke price increase is about to be implemented, and there is an expected tightening of coking coal supply before the Spring Festival, with the market stabilizing at a low level. The pressure of inventory accumulation in the steel sector in the off - season is emerging, and the fundamentals lack highlights, but there is no negative feedback expectation, so the market oscillates. The demand for glass remains resilient, and the downstream replenishment of soda ash continues. There are signs of a low - level rebound in the market, but the oversupply of glass and soda ash continues to limit the upside space of the market [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - To - port volume has decreased, and short - term supply pressure has slightly eased, but inventory pressure is still increasing. There are still expected disturbances on the supply side due to weather, and pre - holiday replenishment on the demand side supports the ore price. The supply and demand on both sides in reality still need to be verified. Scrap steel supply is stable, with an expected decline in daily consumption, and the overall fundamentals will marginally weaken. It is expected that the spot price will follow the finished products [3]. 3.2 Carbon Element - Coke has strong cost - side support, and there is still an expectation of steel mill resumption and winter storage replenishment demand. The coke supply - demand structure is relatively healthy. After the spot price increase is implemented, it may remain stable for the time being, and the market is expected to follow coking coal. The winter storage on the demand side is still in progress, and the coal mine output is expected to decline as the holiday approaches on the supply side. The fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, with strong spot support. However, after the market has priced in the winter storage replenishment, the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is limited, and it is expected to oscillate [4]. 3.3 Alloys - The cost support for manganese silicon has loosened, the market supply - demand is in a loose state, the upstream de - stocking pressure is large, and the market price is under pressure. However, the current futures price has fallen to a low - level range, and the space for further decline is limited under cost support. It is expected that the price will mainly oscillate around the cost valuation at a low level. The silicon - iron market has weak supply and demand, with limited fundamental contradictions, but the low market trading activity suppresses the upside of the market. In the short term, the futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation [4]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expected disturbances in glass supply, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. Soda ash is in overall oversupply. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and in the long run, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity de - stocking [4]. 3.5 Specific Analysis of Each Variety 3.5.1 Steel - In the off - season, supply and demand are both weak, and the market oscillates. The spot market trading is generally weak. Steel mill profitability continues to improve, but the increase in molten iron production has slowed down. The pressure of inventory accumulation in the off - season is emerging, and the fundamentals lack highlights. In the short term, the market is under pressure on the upside, but there is no negative feedback expectation, and the downside space is limited [9]. 3.5.2 Iron Ore - The commodity sentiment is warm, and the market still has resilience. Overseas mine shipments have increased, and the to - port volume has decreased. The supply side is expected to be disturbed by weather. The demand side has stable rigid demand, and steel mills are replenishing stocks, but the enthusiasm is still weak. Port and steel mill inventories are accumulating. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [9][10]. 3.5.3 Scrap Steel - This week's arrivals have decreased, and the daily consumption of electric furnaces has decreased seasonally. Supply has decreased slightly, and demand is expected to decline seasonally. The overall fundamentals will marginally weaken, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [11]. 3.5.4 Coke - The price increase is about to be implemented, and the market oscillates. The cost - side support is strong, and there is still an expectation of steel mill resumption and winter storage replenishment demand. The supply - demand structure is healthy. After the spot price increase is implemented, it may remain stable, and the market is expected to follow coking coal [12][13]. 3.5.5 Coking Coal - Downstream replenishment is gradually in place, and the spot auction prices mostly decline. The supply is stable, and the import is at a high level. The demand side is in the winter storage stage, but the inventory is gradually in place, and the market sentiment has cooled. It is expected to oscillate [14]. 3.5.6 Glass - The demand still has resilience, and the inventory is expected to be de - stocked. The supply may be disturbed, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the price is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, it will rise [15]. 3.5.7 Soda Ash - Downstream replenishment continues, and short - term contradictions are limited. The supply has slightly increased, and the demand has a downward trend. The overall supply and demand are in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the price center will decline in the long run [15]. 3.5.8 Manganese Silicon - The upstream has great difficulty in de - stocking, and the upside space of the futures price is limited. The cost support has slightly loosened, the supply - demand is loose, and the upstream de - stocking pressure is large. The price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation at a low level [17]. 3.5.9 Silicon Iron - The market supply - demand contradictions are limited, and the market mainly oscillates. The cost supports the price, but the trading activity is low. The supply and demand are both weak, and the futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation in the short term [18]. 3.6 Index Information - On January 28, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities increased by 1.21% to 2529.70, the commodity 20 index increased by 1.52% to 2919.66, the industrial products index increased by 0.89% to 2378.08, and the PPI commodity index increased by 1.29% to 1474.48. The steel industry chain index on January 28, 2026, had a daily increase of 0.05%, a 5 - day decrease of 0.11%, a 1 - month decrease of 0.06%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.06% [103][104].