Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The heavy oil crack spread can be taken profit, and crude oil can be bought on dips in the shale oil break - even cost range [2] - The current valuation of methanol is low, and its pattern will improve marginally next year. Although there are still short - term negative pressures, it has the feasibility of buying on dips due to the geopolitical instability in Iran [4] - The current situation of the domestic - foreign price difference of urea has opened the import window, and with the expectation of improved start - up at the end of January, the fundamental negative expectation of urea is coming, so it should be short - allocated on rallies [5] - The chemical sector may fluctuate or decline after the rise. The seasonality of rubber is weak, and it is necessary to guard against the decline of RU. Currently, a neutral - bearish mindset is adopted, with short - term trading on the disk and quick entry and exit. If RU2605 falls below 16000, a short - selling mindset should be adopted. It is recommended to partially build a position by buying the main contract of NR and short - selling RU2609 [10] - The fundamentals of PVC are poor, with strong domestic supply and weak demand. In the short term, electricity price expectations, rush - to - export, and strong commodity sentiment support PVC. In the medium term, the idea of short - allocating on rallies should be maintained before substantial production cuts in the industry [14] - The non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, and profits can be gradually taken [17] - OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed out. The spot price of polyethylene remains unchanged, and there is still room for the PE valuation to decline. In the medium term, with no further production cuts in China, the valuation is expected to be compressed [20] - In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure of polypropylene is high, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven downward trends to production mismatches. It is advisable to buy on dips the spread between PP5 and PP9 [23] - Currently, PX maintains a high load, and downstream PTA has many maintenance plans. It is expected to maintain an inventory - building pattern before the maintenance season. The medium - term pattern is good, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of buying on dips following crude oil [25] - PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - building stage. In the short term, it is necessary to guard against the risk of processing fee correction, and there is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Medium - term attention should be paid to buying on dips opportunities and grasping the rhythm [30] - In the industrial fundamentals of ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and the port inventory - building cycle will continue. In the medium term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction under the pressure of inventory - building and high start - up. The valuation is currently high compared to the same period, and in the medium term, the valuation is expected to be compressed without further production cuts in China [32] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - On January 29, 2026, the main INE crude oil futures closed up 11.20 yuan/barrel, a 2.49% increase, at 460.30 yuan/barrel. The main futures of related refined products, high - sulfur fuel oil, closed up 60.00 yuan/ton, a 2.23% increase, at 2751.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil closed up 73.00 yuan/ton, a 2.31% increase, at 3232.00 yuan/ton [1] Methanol - On January 29, 2026, the regional spot prices in Jiangsu, Lunan, Henan, and Inner Mongolia decreased by 33 yuan/ton, 7.5 yuan/ton, 25 yuan/ton, and 12.5 yuan/ton respectively, while that in Hebei remained unchanged. The main futures contract increased by 33.00 yuan/ton to 2339 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit increased by 65 yuan [3] Urea - On January 29, 2026, the regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, and Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan/ton, while those in Hebei, Hubei, Shanxi, and Northeast China remained unchanged. The overall basis was reported at - 49 yuan/ton. The main futures contract increased by 9 yuan/ton to 1799 yuan/ton [5] Rubber - On January 29, 2026, the chemical sector oscillated downward, with butadiene rubber and natural rubber (RU) falling. The sharp rise in butadiene rubber may be due to large - scale allocation of long positions in the chemical sector by macro funds, the expected increase in the cost of naphtha and butadiene due to the expected naphtha consumption tax policy, and the expected reduction in butadiene production, as well as the increase in butadiene exports due to spot demand in South Korea. The inventory at East China ports decreased significantly. The long - side of natural rubber believes that the rubber production in Southeast Asia may be limited, and the seasonality usually turns upward in the second half of the year, with improved demand expectations in China. The short - side believes that the macro - expectations are uncertain, and supply is increasing while demand is in the seasonal off - season [7] PVC - On January 29, 2026, the PVC05 contract increased by 2 yuan to 4913 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4700 (- 10) yuan/ton, the basis was - 213 (- 12) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 112 (+5) yuan/ton. The overall PVC start - up rate was 78.7%, a 0.9% decrease from the previous period. The downstream start - up rate was 44.9%, a 1% increase from the previous period. The in - plant inventory was 30.8 tons (- 0.3), and the social inventory was 117.8 tons (+3.3) [12] Pure Benzene & Styrene - On January 29, 2026, the cost - side East China pure benzene price was 5960 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 6130 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the pure benzene basis was - 170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan/ton. The styrene spot price remained unchanged at 7900 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7785 yuan/ton, an increase of 136 yuan/ton; the basis was 115 yuan/ton, a decrease of 136 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up rate was 69.63%, a decrease of 1.23%. The inventory at Jiangsu ports decreased by 0.71 tons to 9.35 tons. The weighted start - up rate of the three S products was 42.40%, an increase of 0.49%. The PS start - up rate was 57.30%, a decrease of 0.10%, the EPS start - up rate was 58.71%, an increase of 4.65%, and the ABS start - up rate was 66.80%, a decrease of 3.00% [16] Polyethylene - On January 29, 2026, the closing price of the main polyethylene contract was 6967 yuan/ton, an increase of 68 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 6825 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 142 yuan/ton, a decrease of 68 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up rate was 81.56%, a 1.23% increase from the previous period. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.51 tons to 35.03 tons, and the trader inventory remained unchanged at 2.92 tons. The downstream average start - up rate was 41.1%, a 0.11% decrease from the previous period. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 48 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton [19] Polypropylene - On January 29, 2026, the closing price of the main polypropylene contract was 6778 yuan/ton, an increase of 69 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 6655 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton. The basis was - 123 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up rate was 76.61%, a 0.01% decrease from the previous period. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 3.67 tons to 43.1 tons, the trader inventory decreased by 1.08 tons to 19.39 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.05 tons to 7.06 tons. The downstream average start - up rate was 52.58%, a 0.02% decrease from the previous period. The LL - PP spread was 189 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton. The PP5 - 9 spread remained unchanged at - 36 yuan/ton [21][22] PX - On January 29, 2026, the PX03 contract increased by 106 yuan to 7392 yuan, and the PX CFR increased by 21 dollars to 924 dollars. The basis was 37 yuan (+52), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 124 yuan (- 34). The PX load in China was 88.9%, a 0.5% decrease from the previous period; the Asian load was 81%, a 0.4% increase from the previous period. Zhejiang Petrochemical further reduced its load, Sinochem Quanzhou restarted, and the South Korean GS device restarted. The PTA load was 76.6%, a 0.3% increase from the previous period. In January, the export of South Korean PX to China in the first and middle ten - days was 21.5 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.8 tons. The inventory at the end of November was 446 tons, a 6 - ton increase from the previous month [24] PTA - On January 29, 2026, the PTA05 contract increased by 112 yuan to 5370 yuan, and the East China spot price increased by 10 yuan to 5235 yuan. The basis was - 80 yuan (- 1), and the 5 - 9 spread was 6 yuan (- 10). The PTA load was 76.6%, a 0.3% increase from the previous period. The downstream load was 86.4%, a 1.9% decrease from the previous period. The terminal texturing load decreased by 4% to 66%, and the loom load decreased by 6% to 49%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on January 23 was 208.3 tons, a 3.8 - ton increase from the previous period. The spot processing fee of PTA decreased by 94 yuan to 362 yuan, and the disk processing fee increased by 42 yuan to 521 yuan [27] Ethylene Glycol - On January 29, 2026, the EG05 contract increased by 32 yuan to 3970 yuan, and the East China spot price decreased by 8 yuan to 3835 yuan. The basis was - 118 yuan (- 1), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 96 yuan (- 4). The ethylene glycol load was 73%, a 1.4% decrease from the previous period. The downstream load was 86.4%, a 1.9% decrease from the previous period. The terminal texturing load decreased by 4% to 66%, and the loom load decreased by 6% to 49%. The import arrival forecast was 14.7 tons, and the East China departure was 1.51 tons on January 27. The port inventory was 85.8 tons, a 6.3 - ton increase from the previous period. The naphtha - based production profit was - 840 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 534 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 352 yuan. The ethylene price decreased to 700 dollars, and the Yulin pit - mouth steam coal price decreased to 530 yuan [31]
五矿期货能源化工日报-20260129
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-01-29 00:58