宝城期货甲醇早报-2026-01-29-20260129

Report Summary 1. Report Investment Rating for the Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol 2605 contract is expected to run strongly in the short - term, with a short - term outlook of oscillation, a medium - term outlook of oscillation, and an intraday outlook of strength [1][5]. - The methanol futures in the domestic market are likely to maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend on Thursday, January 29, 2026 [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Time - cycle Viewpoints - Short - term: The methanol 2605 contract is expected to oscillate [1]. - Medium - term: The medium - term view for methanol is oscillation [1][5]. - Intraday: The intraday view for methanol is strength, and the reference view is that it will run strongly [1][5]. 3.2 Core Logic - Overseas supply "hard - contraction" is the strongest support factor for the recent upward movement of methanol prices, with Iran, a major import source, facing serious supply disruptions [5]. - The depletion of methanol inventory at domestic ports has led to a recovery in port spot prices, a stronger basis, and increased confidence among long - position holders in the futures market [5]. - Geopolitical risks, such as the arrival of a US military aircraft carrier in the Middle East and Iran's tough statements, may further intensify the US - Iran conflict, increasing the premium on methanol [1][5]. - Although the domestic methanol futures opened high and closed low on Wednesday night with a slight decline, the retracement space was limited [5].