宏观动态报告：1 ? FOMC 会议点评：偏鹰派暂停，等待新任联储主席提名

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy - The pause in interest rate cuts aligns with market expectations, with no signals on the timing of the next cut, emphasizing data and economic outlook assessments[2] - The Fed upgraded its assessment of economic activity, stating it is expanding at a "robust" pace, while uncertainties remain high[2] - The employment market shows signs of stabilization, with the Fed removing previous language about rising downside risks in employment[2] Group 2: Future Leadership and Implications - Market predictions suggest Rieder has nearly a 50% chance of being nominated as the next Fed Chair, while Warsh's probability has dropped below 20%[2] - Trump's ideal candidate would be a loyal and credible dovish figure, but loyalty may take precedence over credibility[2] - If Rieder is nominated, the dollar index is expected to decline further, despite support for dollar assets[2] Group 3: Economic Risks and Projections - Risks include the potential for U.S. labor market and economic data to exceed expectations[6] - There is a risk of unexpected liquidity issues in the U.S. Treasury market[6] - Trump's policies may stimulate inflation beyond expectations[6] - The dollar index is projected to decline further in 2026, benefiting multinational corporate profits[2]