2026年01月29日：期货市场交易指引-20260129

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5] - Black Building Materials: Short - term trading for coking coal; range trading for rebar; wait - and - see for glass [1][7][8] - Non - ferrous Metals: Wait - and - see or hold long positions lightly for copper; strengthen observation for aluminum; wait - and - see for nickel; range trading or take profit on previous long positions for tin; range trading for gold; bullish for silver; range - bound for lithium carbonate [1][11][13][15] - Energy and Chemicals: Range trading for PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol; wait - and - see for caustic soda and soda ash; bearish - sideways for polyolefins [1][19][21][25] - Cotton and Textile Industry Chain: Sideways adjustment for cotton and cotton yarn; sideways trading for apples and jujubes [1][26][28] - Agriculture and Animal Husbandry: Short - term range - bound for live pigs, suggesting shorting on rallies for off - season contracts; short - term rebound for eggs, suggesting hedging post - holiday contracts on rallies; limited upside for corn, suggesting hedging on rallies; sideways at low levels for soybean meal; bullish - sideways for oils and fats [1][29][31][32][33][34][39] 2. Core Views - The market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. Macro factors, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical events all have an impact on the market. For example, geopolitical tensions, Fed policies, and supply - demand changes in different industries affect the prices and trends of corresponding futures products [5][11][17] 3. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - Stock Indices: The market is resilient and may trade sideways in the short term. In the medium to long term, it is bullish, and investors are advised to buy on dips. Factors such as Fed policies, geopolitical events, and the real - estate industry situation affect the market [5] - Treasury Bonds: There is no significant explicit negative news in the bond market, which is expected to trade sideways. There is limited room for the bond yield to decline, and it may wait for the next - stage main theme [5] Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: The coal market shows short - term fluctuations. The price increase lacks sustainability due to factors such as weak downstream demand, coal mine inventory clearance, and short - term cold snaps. It is recommended for short - term trading [7][8] - Rebar: The futures price trades in a narrow range. The static valuation is relatively low, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. It is recommended for range trading [8] - Glass: The supply is stable, the market speculative demand weakens, and the downstream inventory is high. The price is expected to trade sideways in the range of 1050 - 1070. It is recommended to wait and see [9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The macro - level provides strong support, but the fundamentals are weak. The price is expected to trade sideways at a high level with limited upside. It is recommended to wait and see or hold long positions lightly [11] - Aluminum: The supply is relatively stable, the demand is entering the off - season, and the inventory is accumulating. The price may continue to adjust at a high level. It is recommended to strengthen observation [13] - Nickel: Although the Indonesian nickel ore quota reduction boosts the price, the current market has fully priced in. The fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [14][15] - Tin: The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the downstream demand maintains rigid procurement. The price is expected to trade sideways. It is recommended for range trading or taking profit on previous long positions [15] - Silver and Gold: Geopolitical tensions and changes in Fed policies lead to a rise in prices. The medium - term price center moves up. It is recommended to hold long positions for silver and trade in a range for gold, being cautious about chasing high prices [16][17] - Lithium Carbonate: The supply is affected by factors such as mine production and imports, and the demand is strong. The price is expected to trade sideways in a range [18][19] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, but the valuation is low. There are opportunities for export and policy - driven industrial upgrading. The bottom may have been reached, and it is recommended for range trading [19] - Caustic Soda: The demand is weak, the supply pressure is high, and there is short - term delivery pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [21] - Styrene: It rebounds rapidly due to factors such as export increase and device maintenance, but the valuation is high. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices. It is recommended for range trading [21] - Rubber: The supply is shrinking, the inventory is decreasing, and the market sentiment is bullish. It is recommended for range trading [22] - Urea: The supply is increasing, the demand from compound fertilizer enterprises is rising, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to trade sideways in the range of 1730 - 1830 [23] - Methanol: The domestic supply is decreasing, the downstream demand is weak, and the price in some regions is strong due to geopolitical and supply - reduction factors. It is recommended for range trading [24][25] - Polyolefins: The cost support is strengthened, the supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to trade sideways with a bearish bias [25][26] - Soda Ash: The supply is in surplus, the cost is rising, and the downward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [26] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: The global cotton supply - demand situation is changing, and the price is in high - level sideways adjustment. It is recommended to be cautious in the short term and optimistic in the long term [26] - Apples and Jujubes: The market for apples is generally stable with a weak bias, and the jujube market is trading sideways [28] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - Live Pigs: In the short term, the price is range - bound due to supply - demand game. It is recommended to short on rallies for off - season contracts. In the long term, the price is cautiously bullish, and it is recommended to hedge on rallies before effective capacity reduction [29][30] - Eggs: The current valuation is high. It is recommended to hedge post - holiday contracts on rallies, especially the 05 and 06 contracts [31][32] - Corn: The short - term supply - demand is balanced, and the price is at a high level. In the long term, the supply - demand is relatively loose, and the upside is limited. It is recommended to hedge on rallies [32][33][34] - Soybean Meal: The short - term M2603 contract trades sideways, and the far - month 05 contract is under pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to support and pressure levels [34] - Oils and Fats: The three major oils and fats are expected to trade sideways with a bullish bias. It is recommended to buy on dips and hold previous long positions [33][39]