2026-01-29：五矿期货农产品早报-20260129

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For sugar, the current raw sugar price has fallen below the support level of the Brazilian ethanol conversion price. After the new Brazilian sugar - cane crushing season in April this year, there is a possibility of reducing the sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio. After the northern hemisphere starts to end the sugar - cane crushing season in February and the negative impact of increased production is basically realized, international sugar prices may rebound. The supply of imported sugar in China is gradually decreasing, and as sugar prices fall to a low level, the short - term downward space may be limited. It is recommended to wait and see for now [4] - For cotton, in the medium to long term, with the reduction of the new - year planting area and the positive future macro - economic outlook, cotton prices still have room to rise. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of low - buying before the Spring Festival [8] - For protein meal, affected by sudden news from Canada, rapeseed meal prices rebounded. The January USDA report data was slightly negative, but the overall balance sheet situation is still better than that of the 2024/2025 season. From the weekly sample data, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased month - on - month. In the short term, the fundamentals are improving, and protein meal prices may be bottoming out [12] - For oils, affected by the sudden news from Canada and the year - on - year decline in Malaysian palm oil production in January, oil prices rose significantly yesterday. Recently, the inventories of the three major domestic oils have continued to decline month - on - month. The short - term fundamentals are improving, and it is recommended to wait for a pullback before trying to go long [17] - For eggs, the pre - festival stocking sentiment has boosted the spot price increase beyond expectations, and the near - month contracts are driven to fluctuate strongly. However, the overall supply is still abundant, and the demand - side expectations are about to be realized. The near - contracts have post - festival attributes and may mainly fluctuate. In the future, more attention should be paid to the pressure after the rebound. The far - end is affected by the peak of production capacity and has a long - term positive outlook, but after the profit is given too early, the realization path is still uncertain. Pay attention to the selling pressure after the over - valuation [20] - For pigs, the demand support and the market's reluctance to sell due to the high fat - to - standard price difference support the short - term limited decline in the spot price. However, the expectation of inventory accumulation and the upcoming pre - festival supply release have led to the early weakness of the futures market. Considering the large overall supply pressure after the Spring Festival in the first half of the year and the expectation of inventory postponement, the futures discount is logical. There may still be opportunities to sell short after the rebound. Due to limited capacity reduction, the improvement space for the long - term fundamentals has been revised down. Pay attention to the lower support after the long - term decline [23] 3. Summary by Category Sugar Market Information - On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract of Zheng sugar was 5,187 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton or 0.37% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the quotation of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5,250 - 5,320 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] - In the second half of December 2025, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 2.171 million tons of sugar - cane, a year - on - year increase of 26.60%. The sugar output was 56,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.93%. The sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio was 21.24%, a decrease of 11.28 percentage points compared with the same period last year. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 190,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, an increase of 570,000 tons year - on - year. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 sugar - cane crushing season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.77 million tons, an increase of 310,000 tons year - on - year. In December, China imported a total of 69,700 tons of syrup and premixed powder, and the cumulative imports in 2025 were 1.1888 million tons. As of January 15, 2026, India's national sugar output had reached 15.909 million tons, a nearly 22% increase compared with 13.044 million tons in the same period last year. The number of currently operating sugar mills increased from 500 in the same period last year to 518 [3] Strategy - Wait and see for now [4] Cotton Market Information - On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rebounded sharply. The closing price of the May contract of Zheng cotton was 14,940 yuan/ton, up 375 yuan/ton or 2.57% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was reported at 15,933 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [5] - As of January 24, the planting rate of cotton in Brazil's 2025/26 season was 60.6%, compared with 36.3% in the previous week, 46.3% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 40.9%. In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, an increase of 40,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a decrease of 1.56 million tons year - on - year. As of the week of January 23, the spinning mill's opening rate was 64.6%, unchanged from the previous week and an increase of 26.1 percentage points compared with the same period last year. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.7 million tons, an increase of 460,000 tons year - on - year. The January 2025/26 global cotton production forecast was 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons compared with the December forecast and an increase of 200,000 tons compared with the previous season. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a decrease of 1.42 percentage points compared with the December forecast and an increase of 0.62 percentage points compared with the previous season. The January forecast for US cotton production was 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons compared with the December forecast, with the export forecast remaining unchanged, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.43%, a decrease of 2.17 percentage points. The production forecast for Brazil remained unchanged at 4.08 million tons; the production forecast for India was reduced by 110,000 tons to 5.12 million tons; the production forecast for China was increased by 220,000 tons to 7.51 million tons. From January 8 to January 15, the US current - year cotton export sales were 97,300 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 1.72 million tons, a decrease of 166,000 tons year - on - year; among them, the export to China in that week was 3,300 tons, and the cumulative export to China was 88,600 tons, a decrease of 72,100 tons year - on - year [6][7] Strategy - Pay attention to the opportunity of low - buying before the Spring Festival [8] Protein Meal Market Information - On Wednesday, the protein meal futures price fluctuated strongly. The closing price of the May contract of soybean meal was 2,782 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton or 0.58% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed meal was 2,297 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton or 1.14% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the spot price of soybean meal in Dongguan was reported at 3,120 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Huangpu was reported at 2,490 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [10] - Canadian Prime Minister Carney said that after US President Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff, he did not plan to sign any trade agreements with China. From January 8 to January 15, the US exported 2.45 million tons of soybeans, and the current - year cumulative soybean exports were 33.03 million tons; among them, the US exported 1.3 million tons of soybeans to China in that week, and the current - year cumulative exports to China were 9.42 million tons. From January 16 to January 23, the arrival of domestic sample soybeans was 1.47 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons compared with the previous week; the sample soybean port inventory was 7.21 million tons, a decrease of 500,000 tons compared with the previous week; the sample oil - mill soybean meal inventory was 810,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons compared with the previous week. The January 2025/26 global soybean production forecast was 425.67 million tons, an increase of 3.13 million tons compared with the December forecast and a decrease of 1.48 million tons compared with the previous season. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.4%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points compared with December and a decrease of 0.44 percentage points compared with the previous season. Among them, the January forecast for US soybean production was 115.99 million tons, an increase of 238,000 tons compared with the December forecast and a decrease of 3.05 million tons compared with the previous season; the January forecast for Brazil's production was 178 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons compared with the December forecast and an increase of 6.5 million tons compared with the previous season; the January forecast for Argentina's production was 48.5 million tons, unchanged compared with the December forecast and a decrease of 2.6 million tons compared with the previous season. In addition, in the January forecast, the US export volume was slightly reduced by 1.63 million tons to 42.86 million tons compared with the December forecast [11] Strategy - Protein meal prices may be bottoming out [12] Oils Market Information - On Wednesday, the oils futures price fluctuated strongly. The closing price of the May contract of soybean oil was 8,326 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton or 0.82% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of palm oil was 9,270 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton or 0.35% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed oil was 9,330 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton or 0.04% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was reported at 8,850 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was reported at 9,270 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was reported at 10,120 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [14] - Malaysian Prime Minister Carney said that after US President Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff, he did not plan to sign any trade agreements with China. From January 1 to 20 in Malaysia, the crude palm oil production decreased by 14.43% compared with the same period of the previous month. From January 16 to January 23, the inventory of the three major domestic oils decreased slightly by 30,000 tons to 1.95 million tons. The US government plans to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quota in early March. Indonesia's Deputy Minister of Energy said that Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% this year (i.e., the B50 plan) and will maintain the current B40 plan. The January US soybean oil consumption forecast was 1.32 million tons, a decrease of 249,000 tons compared with the December forecast and an increase of 1 million tons compared with the previous season. In December, India's total vegetable oil imports were 1.38 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons compared with November [14][15] Strategy - Wait for a pullback before trying to go long [17] Eggs Market Information - Yesterday, the national egg price was stable with some increases. The average price in the main production areas increased by 0.04 yuan to 3.96 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan increased by 0.1 yuan to 3.7 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao remained unchanged at 3.62 yuan/jin. The supply was normal, the overall market digestion slowed down, and the terminal caution increased. It is expected that the national egg price will mostly remain stable in the short term, with a small number of regions having narrow - range adjustments [19] Strategy - Near - month contracts may mainly fluctuate, and pay attention to the pressure after the rebound. For the far - end, pay attention to the selling pressure after over - valuation [20] Pigs Market Information - Yesterday, the domestic pig price generally continued to decline. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.24 yuan to 12.94 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan decreased by 0.2 yuan to 12.47 yuan/kg. In the northern regions, there was rain and snow, and with the weekend approaching, the demand increased. The farmers reduced the slaughter at low prices, and the pig price may stabilize, with a slight increase in some areas. In the southern regions, the supply may increase due to accelerated slaughter, the demand is average, supply exceeds demand, and the pig price may continue to decline [22] Strategy - There may still be opportunities to sell short after the rebound. Pay attention to the lower support after the long - term decline [23]