贵金属：贵金属日报2026-01-29-20260129

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's monetary policy stance in the recent FOMC meeting was cautious, keeping the interest rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range without a rate cut, which met market expectations. However, Waller's dissenting vote to support a 25bps rate cut was more dovish than expected, and the market's probability prediction of Waller being nominated as the new Fed chair rose from 8% to 15%, which further impacted the Fed's monetary policy independence. Coupled with previous contradictory remarks on the US dollar exchange rate, the US dollar's credit was weakened again, driving gold prices to reach a new high. The weakening of the US dollar's credit is irreversible from fiscal, foreign relations, and monetary policy perspectives, leading to a continuous strong performance of gold and silver prices. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view, with the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold being 1099 - 1460 yuan/gram and that for the main contract of Shanghai Silver being 24880 - 31000 yuan/kilogram [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold rose 3.36% to 1196.80 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver rose 1.46% to 28885.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold was reported at 5411.00 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver was reported at 116.62 US dollars/ounce. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was 4.26%, and the US dollar index was 96.34 [2] 3.2 Key Data Changes - Gold: The closing price of the active COMEX gold contract rose 4.47% to 5411.00 US dollars/ounce; the trading volume decreased by 65.32% to 11.06 million lots; the position increased by 0.10% to 52.80 million lots; the inventory decreased by 0.18% to 1116 tons. The closing price of LBMA gold rose 4.79% to 5306.95 US dollars/ounce. The closing price of the active Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold contract rose 3.29% to 1186.20 yuan/gram; the trading volume increased by 0.77% to 57.76 million lots; the position decreased by 0.08% to 37.19 million lots; the inventory remained unchanged at 103.03 tons; the settled funds increased by 3.22% to 70.591 billion yuan. The closing price of AuT + D rose 3.60% to 1184.04 (multi - pay - short); the trading volume decreased by 28.89% to 77.77 tons; the position increased by 3.71% to 238.89 tons [6] - Silver: The closing price of the active COMEX silver contract rose 3.81% to 116.62 US dollars/ounce; the position increased by 0.33% to 15.20 million lots; the inventory decreased by 0.83% to 12805 tons. The closing price of LBMA silver rose 1.10% to 112.80 US dollars/ounce. The closing price of the active SHFE silver contract rose 3.25% to 29219.00 yuan/kilogram; the trading volume increased by 1.96% to 258.39 million lots; the position decreased by 2.72% to 70.61 million lots; the inventory decreased by 6.59% to 508.37 tons; the settled funds increased by 0.44% to 55.705 billion yuan. The closing price of AgT + D rose 2.01% to 29310.00 (short - pay - multi); the trading volume decreased by 2.89% to 609.04 tons; the position decreased by 0.31% to 3335.61 tons [6] 3.3 Market Analysis - The Fed's FOMC meeting decided to keep the interest rate unchanged, but Waller's dissenting vote to support a rate cut and the upcoming nomination of a new Fed chair, along with previous remarks on the US dollar exchange rate, weakened the US dollar's credit, driving up gold and silver prices [3] 3.4 Strategy Suggestions - Due to the continuous weakening of the US dollar's credit, it is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 1099 - 1460 yuan/gram, and that for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 24880 - 31000 yuan/kilogram [4]