宁证期货今日早评-20260129

Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides short - term commentaries on multiple commodities, including gold, PTA, steel, etc., and analyzes their market trends and investment suggestions [1][3][4] Group 2: Market Analysis of Specific Commodities Gold - The Fed maintains the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75%, and gold hits a new high due to factors such as risk - aversion, dollar index decline, and Fed chair change. Attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances [1] PTA - Polyester inventory is not high. Although terminal demand weakens at the end of the year, PTA factories control production, and social inventory continues to decline. PTA price mainly follows the cost. Attention should be paid to the raw material market [1] Steel - In mid - to - late January, the trading volume of construction steel weakens, and traders' willingness for winter storage is low. Under the game of weak demand and high cost, steel prices may continue to adjust narrowly [3] Iron Ore - Overseas iron ore shipments and domestic arrivals decline, but the year - on - year increase is large. Port inventory continues to accumulate. The supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, and ore prices are expected to fluctuate [3] Coking Coal - Downstream enterprises are still in the winter storage period, and coal mine production is expected to decline. The fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally. The spot price has a slight upward momentum, but the futures market has limited upward driving force and is expected to fluctuate [4] Short - term Treasury Bonds - The treasury cash deposit eases the capital market, and the interest rate decline is beneficial to the bond market. However, due to the stock - bond seesaw effect and macro - prudential management, the bond market has limited upward driving force and is expected to fluctuate [4] Silver - Geopolitical disturbances support gold, and silver is passively driven by gold. It is not recommended to be overly bullish in the short term, and attention should be paid to the interaction between gold and silver [5] Live Pigs - The national live pig price continues to decline. The supply of standard - weight pigs is relatively loose, and demand is negative. The price fluctuates frequently within the range. The downward space is limited in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [6] Palm Oil - Palm oil has support from production reduction and biodiesel expectations, and is easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term. However, the export in January may not be optimistic, and the inventory pressure in Malaysia is still large. The suspension of the Canada - China trade agreement drives the price up. It is recommended to hold short - term long positions [6] Soybean Meal - Terminal feed enterprises' last - round stocking demand supports the market price, and some oil mills' soybean meal inventory continues to decline. However, due to high oil mill operating rates and the upcoming supply pressure from Brazilian soybeans, the upward space is limited [7] Copper - The Fed's interest rate decision is neutral, and the supply is still tight while the demand is under pressure. The copper price is expected to fluctuate at a high level and wait for new guidance [7] Aluminum - Guinea's bauxite export volume increases, and the supply is sufficient. The main contradiction lies in the smelting end. The short - term sharp rise in aluminum price is driven by funds and market sentiment, and the risk of correction should be vigilant [8] Crude Oil - U.S. crude oil inventory declines, and geopolitical risks support the market. Crude oil prices continue to rise. Short - term long trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks and winter storms [9] Rubber - Rubber inventory declines, and the downstream demand is weak. The market is in a wide - range fluctuation, and short - term trading is recommended [9]