——2026年1月美联储议息会议解读：降息暂缓，前紧后松

Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve paused interest rate cuts, maintaining the target range at 3.5%-3.75%, aligning with expectations[1] - Two members voted against the pause, advocating for a 25 basis point cut, while the remaining ten supported the decision[1] Employment and Inflation - The Fed removed previous language indicating increased downside risks to employment, suggesting some stabilization in the unemployment rate[2] - Inflation remains elevated, with core PCE slightly above 2% after excluding tariff impacts, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[2] Economic Growth Outlook - The Fed upgraded its economic outlook to "expanding at a moderate pace," reflecting improved economic data compared to previous assessments[2] - The U.S. economy shows signs of stabilization, driven by resilient consumer spending and reduced negative impacts from investment[2] Market Reactions and Future Projections - Market expectations for rate cuts in March and April have decreased, with probabilities rising to 86.5% and 74% respectively[3] - The necessity for further rate cuts by the Fed is diminishing, as the labor market shows signs of stabilization and inflation lacks upward momentum[3] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected increases in inflation, tighter monetary policy from the Fed, and a downturn in the U.S. economy exceeding expectations[3]