国新国证期货早报-20260129

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on January 28, 2026 - A-shares: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.27% to 4151.24, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.09% to 14342.89, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.57% to 3323.56. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 2992.6 billion yuan, an increase of 70.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - CSI 300 Index: It closed at 4717.99, up 12.30 [2]. 2. Futures Market Performance 2.1 Energy and Chemical Futures - Coke: The weighted index closed at 1686.5, down 2.0 [2]. - Coking Coal: The weighted index closed at 1142.6 yuan, up 6.1 [3]. - Zhengzhou Sugar: The 2605 contract of Zhengzhou sugar oscillated upward. The price of Brazilian sugar was affected by dry weather, and the spot price limited its upside. At night, it continued to rise due to short - covering [4]. - Rubber: Affected by the expected decrease in spot supply and rising crude oil prices, Shanghai rubber oscillated higher. At night, it oscillated and closed slightly higher due to technical factors [4]. - Palm Oil: The futures contract P2605 closed at 9270, up 0.35%. From January 1 - 25, 2026, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 14.81% month - on - month [6]. - Asphalt: The 2603 contract closed at 3410 yuan, up 3.96%. Refinery supply was low, inventory was slightly accumulated, and prices oscillated due to cost support [8]. 2.2 Agricultural Futures - Soybean Meal: The CBOT soybean main contract rose 0.68% to 1074.75 cents per bushel. The domestic M2505 contract rose 0.58% to 2782 yuan/ton. Brazilian harvest pressure and US dollar weakness co - existed. Domestic inventory decreased, and post - holiday supply was expected to be loose [6]. - Live Hogs: The LH2603 contract closed at 11270 yuan/ton, down 0.13%. Supply pressure increased, and demand support was limited [6]. - Cotton: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14875 yuan/ton at night, and inventory increased by 4 lots [6]. 2.3 Metal Futures - Shanghai Copper: The 2603 contract closed at 103060 yuan/ton. It first declined and then rebounded. Volume and open interest decreased. Inventory accumulated, and demand was weak [6]. - Iron Ore: The 2605 contract closed at 783 yuan, down 0.7%. Port inventory increased, and prices oscillated due to pre - holiday restocking demand [8]. - Steel: The rb2605 contract closed at 3123 yuan/ton, and the hc2605 contract closed at 3280 yuan/ton. Demand was weak, costs had some support, and prices were expected to adjust narrowly [8]. - Alumina: The ao2605 contract closed at 2811 yuan/ton. The oversupply situation was hard to change in the short term, and prices were expected to oscillate [8]. - Shanghai Aluminum: The al2603 contract closed at 25640 yuan/ton. Supply was stable, inventory increased slightly, and demand pressure increased [8]. 2.4 Log Futures - Logs: The 2603 contract closed at 775.5. The spot price in Shandong and Jiangsu was stable. Attention should be paid to spot support [6][8]. 3. Market Analysis - Coke and Coking Coal: Coke production was at a low level due to losses, and demand was rigid. Coking coal supply was loose both domestically and abroad, and demand was weak [4]. - Soybean Meal: International market was affected by Brazilian harvest and US dollar. Domestic market had pre - holiday demand and post - holiday supply concerns [6]. - Live Hogs: Supply pressure was high in the medium term, and demand increase during the Spring Festival was limited [6]. - Iron Ore: Port inventory was rising, and prices were oscillating due to pre - holiday restocking [8]. - Steel: Weak demand and high costs led to narrow price adjustments [8]. - Alumina: Oversupply and cost decline limited price increases [8]. - Shanghai Aluminum: Supply was stable, and demand pressure was gradually emerging [8].