山金期货黑色板块日报-20260129

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is currently in the off - season of consumption, with low production and demand, and inventory is rising from a low level. The central bank's reduction of re - loan and re - discount rates boosts market confidence to some extent, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts [2]. - For iron ore, the overall production of the five major steel products remains basically unchanged, the apparent demand declines month - on - month, and inventory increases. The iron ore supply is expected to decline, and the port inventory is rising [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - Supply and Demand: Last week, the production of threaded rods increased month - on - month, the overall inventory increased, the apparent demand for threaded rods declined month - on - month, the apparent demand for the five major varieties declined overall, inventory increased, and production remained basically unchanged [2]. - Technical Analysis: The futures price is oscillating in a narrow range of 100 yuan/ton and may face a direction choice [2]. - Operation Suggestion: Hold long positions lightly, and add positions at low prices when the futures price falls to the lower edge of the oscillation range. Conduct medium - term trading and avoid chasing up or selling down [2]. - Data Summary: - Prices: The closing price of the threaded rod main contract is 3123 yuan/ton, down 0.10% from the previous day and up 0.19% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3280 yuan/ton, down 0.27% from the previous day and down 0.18% from last week [2]. - Production: The national building materials steel mill threaded rod production is 199.55 tons, up 4.86% from last week; the hot - rolled coil production is 305.41 tons, down 0.96% from last week [2]. - Inventory: The social inventory of the five major varieties is 868.46 tons, up 0.25% from last week; the social inventory of threaded rods is 303.12 tons, up 2.61% from last week; the social inventory of hot - rolled coils is 281.14 tons, down 1.63% from last week [2]. - Apparent Demand: The apparent demand for the five major varieties is 809.52 tons, down 2.01% from last week; the apparent demand for threaded rods is 185.52 tons, down 2.53% from last week; the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils is 309.96 tons, down 1.34% from last week [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - Demand: The overall production of the five major steel products remains basically unchanged, the apparent demand declines month - on - month, and inventory increases. The iron water production is likely to decline seasonally, and the steel and iron water production will not increase significantly for the time being, but the decline space is also limited [4]. - Supply: Global shipments decline, and shipments are expected to continue to decline due to seasonal factors in the Southern Hemisphere. The arrival volume decreases, and the port inventory is rising. The shutdown of two Vale mines has little impact on the overall supply [4]. - Technical Analysis: The futures price breaks through the recent oscillation range and then falls back to the upper edge of the previous oscillation range. The short - term rebound encounters resistance at the 10 - day moving average, indicating strong resistance above [4]. - Operation Suggestion: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, patiently wait for the futures price to stabilize, and then look for opportunities to go long. Avoid chasing up or selling down [4]. - Data Summary: - Prices: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 783 yuan/dry ton, down 0.63% from the previous day and down 1.0 from last week; the SGX iron ore continuous - one settlement price is 102.87 US dollars/dry ton, down 0.82% from the previous day and down 1.79 from last week [4]. - Shipments: The Australian iron ore shipments are 1653.7 tons, up 213.6 from last week; the Brazilian iron ore shipments are 485.2 tons, up 5.1 from last week [4]. - Inventory: The port inventory is 16766.53 tons, up 211.43 from last week; the port trade ore inventory is 11527.84 tons, up 174.99 from last week [4]. 3.3 Industry News - Some steel mills in Tangshan and Xingtai plan to raise the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, effective at zero o'clock on January 30, 2026 [6]. - Two iron ore units of Vale in Brazil have been ordered to suspend operations and have had their licenses revoked due to water overflow incidents. The annualized total output of these two units is expected to be about 8 million tons, accounting for about 2.3% of its annual output guidance [6]. - As of the week ending January 28, according to zhaogang.com data, the national building materials production is 430.1 tons, a decrease of 8.33 tons from last week; the factory inventory is 414.39 tons, an increase of 10.35 tons from last week; the social inventory is 388.22 tons, an increase of 21.05 tons from last week; the total inventory is 802.61 tons, an increase of 31.4 tons from last week; the apparent demand is 398.7 tons, a decrease of 14.06 tons from last week [6].