工业硅：上游减产，盘面亦有支撑，多晶硅：会议情绪偏好

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Industrial Silicon: Upstream Production Cut, Support on the Futures Market" and dated January 29, 2026 [1] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The report focuses on the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including price, profit, inventory, and raw material costs. It also mentions the macro and industry news of the national power statistics in 2025 [2][3] Group 4: Fundamental Data Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market - Si2605 closing price is 8,760 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan from T - 1, 20 yuan from T - 5, and 75 yuan from T - 22. Its trading volume is 243,714 lots, with changes of 25,922, -36,861, and -24,721 compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 respectively. The open interest is 235,683 lots, down 6,942 from T - 1, up 11,996 from T - 5, and up 19,129 from T - 22 [2] - PS2605 closing price is 50,805 yuan/ton, down 1,095 yuan from T - 1, up 1,105 yuan from T - 5. Its trading volume is 8,361 lots, down 2,863 from T - 1 and 7,123 from T - 5. The open interest is 41,415 lots, down 24 from T - 1 and 2,505 from T - 5 [2] Basis - Industrial silicon spot premium (against East China Si5530) is +490 yuan/ton, with changes of 100, 20, and 75 compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 respectively. Against East China Si4210, it is +90 yuan/ton, with changes of 100, 20, and 1,420. Against Xinjiang 99 silicon, it is -60 yuan/ton, with changes of 100, 20, and 120 [2] - Polysilicon spot premium (against N - type re - investment) is +600 yuan/ton, down 2,370 from T - 1, 4,450 from T - 5, and up 7,555 from T - 22 [2] Price - Xinjiang 99 silicon price is 8,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22. Yunnan Si4210 price is 10,000 yuan/ton, also unchanged [2] - Polysilicon - N - type re - investment material price is 52,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, down 2,000 from T - 5, and up 150 from T - 22 [2] Profit - Silicon factory profit (Xinjiang new standard 553) is -2,271.5 yuan/ton, down 55 from T - 1, 310 from T - 5, and 325 from T - 22. Yunnan new standard 553 is -5,479 yuan/ton, with the same changes as Xinjiang [2] - Polysilicon enterprise profit is 8.1 yuan/kg, down 1.1 from T - 1, 1.6 from T - 5, and up 0.5 from T - 22 [2] Inventory - Industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 55.6 million tons, up 0.1 million tons from T - 5 and T - 22. Enterprise inventory (sample enterprises) is 21.3 million tons, up 0.56 million tons from T - 5 and 2.1 million tons from T - 22. Industry inventory (social + enterprise) is 76.9 million tons, up 0.66 million tons from T - 5 and 2.16 million tons from T - 22. Futures warehouse receipt inventory is 6.6 million tons, up 0.2 million tons from T - 5 and 2.0 million tons from T - 22 [2] - Polysilicon factory inventory is 33.0 million tons, up 0.9 million tons from T - 5 and 2.7 million tons from T - 22 [2] Raw Material Costs - Silicon ore prices in Xinjiang and Yunnan are 320 yuan/ton and 235 yuan/ton respectively, with Yunnan down 5 yuan from T - 5 and 15 yuan from T - 22 [2] - Washing coal prices in Xinjiang and Ningxia are 1,475 yuan/ton and 1,200 yuan/ton respectively, unchanged [2] - Maoming coke and Yangzi coke prices are 1,400 yuan/ton and 2,340 yuan/ton respectively, unchanged [2] - Graphite electrode and carbon electrode prices are 12,450 yuan/ton and 7,200 yuan/ton respectively, unchanged [2] Polysilicon (Photovoltaic) - Polysilicon - N - type re - investment material price is 52,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, down 2,000 from T - 5, and up 150 from T - 22. Trichlorosilane price is 3,425 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Silicon powder (99 silicon) price is 9,850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan from T - 5 and T - 22 [2] - Silicon wafer (N - type - 210mm) price is 1.63 yuan/piece, unchanged from T - 1, down 0.05 from T - 5, and up 0.10 from T - 22 [2] - Battery cell (TOPCon - 210mm) price is 0.435 yuan/watt, unchanged from T - 1, up 0.03 from T - 5, and down 0.75 from T - 22 [2] - Component (N - type - 210mm, centralized) price is 0.728 yuan/watt, unchanged from T - 1, up 0.017 from T - 5, and up 0.04 from T - 22 [2] - Photovoltaic glass (3.2mm) price is 17.5 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from T - 1 and T - 5, down 0.75 from T - 22 [2] - Photovoltaic - grade EVA price is 9,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 and T - 5, up 299 from T - 22 [2] Organic Silicon - DMC price is 13,900 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 and T - 5, up 300 from T - 22. DMC enterprise profit is 1,817 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, down 111 from T - 5, and up 127 from T - 22 [2] Aluminum Alloy - ADC12 price is 24,150 yuan/ton, up 150 from T - 1, 300 from T - 5, and 2,200 from T - 22. Recycled aluminum enterprise profit is 130 yuan/ton, up 160 from T - 1, down 40 from T - 5, and up 210 from T - 22 [2] Group 5: Macro and Industry News - On January 28, 2026, the National Energy Administration released the national power statistics for 2025. By the end of 2025, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.89 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 16.1%. Among them, solar power installed capacity was 1.2 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 35.4%. The new solar power installed capacity in 2025 was 315GW, with 274.89GW from January to November and over 40GW in December [3][4] Group 6: Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity is 0; polysilicon trend intensity is 1. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4]