LPG：短期地缘扰动偏强，丙烯：需求支撑坚挺，现货维持高位

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term geopolitical disturbances for LPG are relatively strong, and the demand for propylene provides strong support, keeping the spot price at a high level [1]. 3. Summary Based on Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Market - For LPG (PG): - On 2026/1/28, the closing price of PG2602 was 4,338 with a daily increase of 1.10%, and the night - session closing price was 4,330 with a decrease of 0.18%. The trading volume was 738, a decrease of 161 from the previous day, and the open interest was 1,350, a decrease of 602. - PG2603 had a closing price of 4,286 with a daily increase of 0.89%, and the night - session closing price was 4,289 with an increase of 0.07%. The trading volume was 77,168, a decrease of 36,545, and the open interest was 92,829, a decrease of 2,844. - PG2604 had a closing price of 4,566 with a daily increase of 1.11%, and the night - session closing price was 4,564 with a decrease of 0.04%. The trading volume was 22,979, a decrease of 2,343, and the open interest was 66,229, an increase of 1,704 [1]. - For propylene (PL): - On 2026/1/28, the closing price of PL2602 was 6,155 with a daily increase of 0.87%, and the night - session closing price was 6,171 with an increase of 0.26%. The trading volume was 125, a decrease of 524, and the open interest was 2,204, a decrease of 1. - PL2603 had a closing price of 6,281 with a daily increase of 0.53%, and the night - session closing price was 6,294 with an increase of 0.21%. The trading volume was 22,962, an increase of 4,075, and the open interest was 9,682, a decrease of 2,478. - PL2604 had a closing price of 6,335 with a daily increase of 0.73%, and the night - session closing price was 6,372 with an increase of 0.58%. The trading volume was 10,479, a decrease of 4,386, and the open interest was 9,943, an increase of 994 [1]. 3.1.2 Spot Market - For LPG (PG): - The price of Shandong civil LPG was 4,410 with no change from the previous day, and the main - contract basis was 124, a decrease of 38. - The price of East China civil LPG was 4,401, an increase of 17, and the main - contract basis was 115, a decrease of 21. - The price of South China civil LPG was 4,850, an increase of 10, and the main - contract basis was 564, a decrease of 28. - The price of Shandong ether - after LPG was 4,370, an increase of 20, and the main - contract basis was 234, a decrease of 18. - The FEI arrival price was 4,807, an increase of 90, and the main - contract basis was 621, an increase of 52. - The price of East China imported LPG was 4,959 with no change, and the main - contract basis was 773, a decrease of 38. - The price of South China imported LPG was 4,970 with no change, and the main - contract basis was 784, a decrease of 38 [1]. - For propylene (PL): - The price of Shandong propylene was 6,400, a decrease of 5, and the main - contract basis was 119, a decrease of 38. - The price of East China propylene was 6,550, an increase of 75, and the main - contract basis was 269, an increase of 42. - The price of South China propylene was 6,275 with no change, and the main - contract basis was 94, a decrease of 33 [1]. 3.1.3 Industrial Chain Start - up - As of 2026/1/23, the PDH start - up rate was 62.25%, a decrease of 10.82 from the previous week. The alkylation start - up rate was 36.2% with no change, and the MTBE start - up rate was 68.01%, an increase of 0.44 [1]. 3.1.4 LPG Shipment Volume - From the United States on 2026/1/28: - The global shipment volume was 31.1, an increase of 22.0 from the previous day. The Asian shipment volume was 21.2, an increase of 12.1. The shipment volume to China was 0.0 with no change, to Japan was 11.6, an increase of 6.9, and to South Korea was 0.0 with no change. - From the Middle East on 2026/1/28: - The global shipment volume was 16.2, an increase of 4.7 from the previous day. The Asian shipment volume was 15.6, an increase of 4.1. The shipment volume to China was 0.0, a decrease of 4.6, to Japan was 0.0 with no change, and to South Korea was 0.0 with no change [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and the trend intensity of propylene is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish), and 0 represents a neutral state [5]. 3.3 Market Information - On January 28, 2026, the February CP paper - cargo price of propane was 538 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the price of butane was 528 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton. The March CP paper - cargo price of propane was 525 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton [6]. - There are multiple domestic PDH device maintenance plans, including those of Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc. Some maintenance start times are from 2023, and the end times of many are to be determined [7]. - There are also domestic liquefied gas factory device maintenance plans, such as those of Rizhao (China National Offshore Oil Corporation), Shenchi Chemical, and Sinochem Quanzhou. The normal production volume, loss volume, start time, end time, and maintenance duration are provided [7].