华宝期货晨报铝锭-20260129

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a downward - centered and weakly oscillating pattern, with a view of oscillating and consolidating [1][3] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to be strong in the short - term, with a view of short - term upward movement, and it is necessary to pay attention to macro - sentiment and ore - end news [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect the total output of construction steel by 741,000 tons during the Spring Festival shutdown. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 started to shut down on January 5, most will shut down in mid - January, and individual ones after January 20, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during shutdown [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% month - on - month decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [3] - Yesterday, the price of finished products continued to decline in an oscillating manner, hitting a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, the price center continues to shift down, and winter storage is sluggish this year, providing little support for prices [3] Aluminum Ingots - Yesterday, the Shanghai aluminum price rose sharply. The main reasons were the significant impact of the escalation of the US - Iran geopolitical conflict on the aluminum product trade, the diversion of funds to basic metals under the background of position limits in the precious metals market, and the increasing expectation of domestic alumina plant production cuts [2] - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range between 3.5% and 3.75%, in line with market expectations [2] - The comprehensive operating rate of aluminum processing last week was 60.9%, a 0.7 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, showing a pattern of stable operation and local fluctuations. The operating rate of aluminum cables increased slightly week - on - week due to the start of UHV projects of the power grid and the Southern Power Grid, and good overseas export demand [3] - On January 26, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 7.77 million tons, a 280,000 - ton increase from the previous Monday [3] Later Concerns - For finished products, it is necessary to focus on macro - policies and downstream demand [3] - For aluminum ingots, it is necessary to pay attention to changes in macro - expectations, the development of geopolitical crises, ore - end resumption of production, and consumption release [5]