铜冠金源期货商品日报-20260129

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the overseas market, the January FOMC meeting maintained the interest rate at 3.50%–3.75%. The Fed continued to purchase short - term bonds, and the balance sheet expanded. In the context of a weak US dollar and rising geopolitical risks, precious metals, industrial metals, and oil prices all showed upward trends. In the domestic market, A - shares fluctuated and closed higher, with funds flowing back to the dividend sector. The market was in a differentiated stage, and the medium - term trend was still positive [2][3]. - Precious metals continued to soar, and the gold - silver ratio was expected to recover from a low level. Copper prices were expected to remain volatile at a high level in the short term, and aluminum prices reached a new high. Alumina was expected to rebound in the short term, and cast aluminum was expected to follow the upward trend. Zinc prices were expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, while lead prices were expected to consolidate at the integer - level mark. Tin prices were expected to be volatile at a high level. Steel products and iron ore were under pressure, and coking coal and coke futures rebounded. Bean and rapeseed meal were expected to be volatile and stronger, and palm oil was expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [4][6][8][10][11][12][14][16][17][19][20][21][23]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomy - Overseas: The January FOMC meeting maintained the interest rate at 3.50%–3.75% with a 10:2 vote. Most members adhered to data - dependence and policy observation. The Fed continued to purchase $40 billion of short - term bonds per month, and the balance sheet expanded until at least April. Powell emphasized the marginal stability of the economy, and the weak US dollar and rising geopolitical risks drove up the prices of precious metals, industrial metals, and oil [2]. - Domestic: A - shares fluctuated and closed higher on Wednesday. Funds returned to the dividend sector, and the two - market trading volume rebounded to 2.99 trillion yuan. The margin trading scale remained above 2.7 trillion yuan. The market was in a differentiated stage, and the medium - term trend was positive [3]. Precious Metals - Prices continued to rise strongly. COMEX gold futures exceeded $5400 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures approached $120 per ounce. Geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties led investors to seek refuge in gold. The Fed's interest - rate decision was in line with expectations, and concerns about silver delivery risks also boosted silver prices. The gold - silver ratio was expected to recover from a low level [4][5]. Copper - Shanghai copper's main contract fluctuated and declined, while LME copper was strongly volatile above $13,000. Domestic spot trading was poor, and inventories increased. The Fed's neutral policy stance was considered appropriate. The weak US dollar boosted copper prices. In the short term, copper prices were expected to remain volatile at a high level, and precious metals would drive up the copper price center in the medium term [6][7]. Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum's main contract closed at 25,640 yuan/ton, up 5.75%. LME aluminum closed at $3263.5/ton, up 1.59%. Geopolitical risks in Iran and capital inflows pushed up aluminum prices. However, short - term capital overheating and the seasonal off - season in consumption led to large price fluctuations. Investors were advised to be cautious when chasing high prices [8][9]. Alumina - The main futures contract closed at 2811 yuan/ton, up 2.27%. The overall strength of the aluminum sector improved the market sentiment of alumina. The supply pressure was slightly relieved due to factory maintenance. It was expected to rebound in the short term, but the upward space was limited [10]. Cast Aluminum - The main futures contract closed at 23,785 yuan/ton, up 3.35%. The rapid rise of primary aluminum drove up the price of cast aluminum futures. The supply of scrap aluminum decreased, and the cost support increased. It was expected to follow the upward trend [11]. Zinc - Shanghai zinc's main contract was volatile and slightly stronger. The market risk preference remained high, and rising natural gas prices and low processing fees supported zinc prices. It was expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, but there was a risk of correction [12][13]. Lead - Shanghai lead's main contract was in a narrow - range shock. Due to heavy pollution and losses, smelters' production cuts increased, but the terminal consumption was weak, and social inventories increased. It was expected to consolidate at the integer - level mark [14][15]. Tin - Shanghai tin's main contract was in a sideways shock. The impact of Indonesia's expected increase in the minimum tin ore purchase price was limited. The raw material supply was tight, and downstream demand was weak. It was expected to be volatile at a high level [16]. Steel Products (Screw and Coil) - Steel futures fluctuated and rebounded. Steel mills' maintenance increased, and the supply pressure decreased. The demand was weak, and the market entered the inventory - accumulation stage. It was expected to remain volatile at a low level, and attention should be paid to inventory and policy changes [17][18]. Iron Ore - Iron ore futures were under pressure. The implementation of the steel export license policy might lead to a 15% - 20% decline in steel exports in the first quarter of 2026. The supply was strong, and the demand was weak. It was expected to be under pressure [19]. Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - Coking coal and coke futures rebounded. The first round of coke price hikes was basically implemented, and the profit of coke enterprises was repaired. The supply of coke decreased due to environmental protection, and the demand was weak. It was expected to be volatile in the short term [20]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - Bean and rapeseed meal futures were stronger. The dry and hot weather in Argentina affected crop growth, and the domestic pre - holiday stocking and declining inventories supported prices. It was expected to be volatile and stronger [21][22]. Palm Oil - Palm oil futures were slightly stronger. The Fed paused interest - rate cuts, and rising oil prices and the expected decrease in palm oil production and increase in demand supported palm oil prices. It was expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [23][24]. Metal Trading Data - The report provided the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, and open interest of various metal futures contracts such as copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, etc., on the previous trading day [25]. Industrial Data - The report presented detailed industrial data of copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, precious metals, steel products, iron ore, coking coal, coke, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and bean and rapeseed meal, including prices, inventories, spreads, etc. [26][28][29][30][31]