中辉农产品观点-20260129

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for each variety, it gives a short - term view: - Bullish: Soybean meal (short - term shock bullish), Rapeseed meal (stop - falling and rebounding), Palm oil (short - term rise), Soybean oil (short - term rise), Cotton (strong operation), Red dates (short - term rebound opportunity within a bearish trend) - Bearish: Live pigs (oscillating weakly) [1] Core Views - Soybean Meal: Entering a phased de - stocking period. The market sentiment is bullish due to weather and policy factors, but there is spot hedging pressure. It should be treated bullishly, but be cautious when chasing long positions [1][5]. - Rapeseed Meal: Short - term supply is tight, but consumption is in the off - season. The price stopped falling and rebounded. Be cautious when chasing long positions due to potential trade policy changes [1][8]. - Palm Oil: Short - term rise. Although production decreased and export data increased, there is still a risk of inventory accumulation in January. Be cautious when chasing long positions [1][11]. - Soybean Oil: Short - term rise. The inventory is in a phased de - stocking period, and the fundamentals are bullish, but be cautious when chasing long positions after continuous rises [1]. - Cotton: The market is strong. Internationally, there are opportunities for price increases. Domestically, there is short - term support from funds, but the fundamentals are weak. In the long - term, there is a strong expectation [1][15]. - Red Dates: The spot market is flat. There may be short - term rebounds due to high - inventory de - stocking, but the overall trend is bearish [1][19]. - Live Pigs: Entering the end of January, the pressure on supply increase rises, and the market sentiment weakens. The demand is expected to pick up this week, and the near - term contracts face pressure, while the far - term contracts are also under pressure [1][21]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - Price Data: The latest futures price of soybean meal is 2782 yuan/ton, up 0.58% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 3196.29 yuan/ton, up 0.04% [3]. - Industry Data: As of last Thursday, the 2025/26 soybean harvest progress in Brazil reached 4.9% of the planting area, and the production forecast was raised to 181 million tons. As of January 23, 2026, the U.S. soybean crushing profit was $2.92 per bushel, up 2.82% from the previous week [4]. - Market Analysis: The drought in Argentina and the optimistic outlook for U.S. soybean exports to China, along with the U.S. biodiesel policy, make the market sentiment bullish. However, state - reserve sales, pre - stocked feed enterprises, and improved soybean crushing profits will bring spot hedging pressure [1][5]. Rapeseed Meal - Price Data: The latest futures price of rapeseed meal is 2297 yuan/ton, up 1.14% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 2612.63 yuan/ton, up 0.47% [6]. - Industry Data: As of January 23, the coastal rapeseed inventory was 60,000 tons, the rapeseed meal inventory was 0 tons, and the unexecuted contracts were 0 tons, all unchanged from last week. China has purchased about 650,000 tons of Canadian rapeseed for February - April delivery [8]. - Market Analysis: Short - term supply is tight, but consumption is in the off - season. The price rebounded due to potential trade policy changes between the U.S. and Canada and China and Canada. Be cautious when chasing long positions [1][8]. Palm Oil - Price Data: The latest futures price of palm oil is 9270 yuan/ton, up 0.35% from the previous day. The national average price is 9260 yuan/ton, up 0.08% [9]. - Industry Data: As of January 23, 2026, the national key - area commercial inventory was 742,300 tons, down 0.38 tons from last week. From January 1 - 25, 2026, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 14.81% month - on - month, and export data varied [11]. - Market Analysis: Italy's new biofuel regulations are positive. Although production decreased and exports increased, there is still a risk of inventory accumulation in January. Be cautious when chasing long positions [1][11]. Cotton - Price Data: The latest futures prices of different cotton contracts show an upward trend. For example, CF2603 is 15065 yuan/ton, up 3.01% [12]. - Industry Data: In Brazil, the 2026 cotton planting area is expected to decrease by 5% to 2.05 million hectares, and the production is expected to be 3.83 million tons, a 10% decrease. In Turkey, the planting area is expected to shrink to 430,000 hectares, and the production will be about 780,000 tons. Domestically, the new cotton processing is basically completed, and the total production is expected to be 7.73 million tons [13][14]. - Market Analysis: Internationally, the U.S. cotton market rebounded. Domestically, the inventory pressure is high, the demand is in the off - season, and the price is driven by funds. In the long - term, there is a strong expectation [1][15]. Red Dates - Price Data: The futures prices of different red date contracts show small fluctuations. For example, CJ2605 (the main contract) is 8830 yuan/ton, up 0.11% [16]. - Industry Data: The inventory of 36 sample enterprises is 14,068 tons, down 347 tons from the previous week, but still higher than the same period [18]. - Market Analysis: The spot market is flat. High - inventory de - stocking may lead to short - term rebounds, but the overall trend is bearish [1][19]. Live Pigs - Price Data: The latest futures prices of different live pig contracts show a downward trend. For example, Ih2603 (the main contract) is 11270 yuan/ton, down 0.13% [20]. - Industry Data: As of January 20, the overall sample - enterprise出栏 progress was slow. The national sample - enterprise pig inventory decreased by 0.22%, and the出栏 increased by 3.80%. The number of fertile sows decreased by 0.73% [20][21]. - Market Analysis: At the end of January, the supply pressure increases, and the market sentiment weakens. The demand is expected to pick up this week, and both near - term and far - term contracts face pressure [1][21].