美联储1月议息会议点评：决议偏鹰，发布会温和

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's FOMC meeting in January 2026 kept interest rates unchanged, with a hawkish tone in the resolution but a mild tone in Powell's speech. The unchanged interest rate was in line with expectations. The resolution was more optimistic about the economy and employment, but two governors voted against it, favoring a 25 - basis - point rate cut. Powell acknowledged a decline in inflation upside risks and employment downside risks, downplaying the possibility of a rate hike [2]. - In the short term, the U.S. Treasury yield curve may show a bear - steepening trend, and the U.S. dollar index will maintain a weak and volatile trend. It is expected that the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield will oscillate between 4% and 4.4%, and the U.S. dollar index will oscillate between 96 and 101. The RMB exchange rate has a trend of accelerating appreciation under the weak U.S. dollar and the wave of foreign exchange settlement. The domestic bond market is "domestically - oriented", and the trading volume is recovering. It is recommended to maintain a long - position mindset [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 FOMC Resolution for the Labor Market with a Hawkish Tone - The FOMC resolution in January 2026 showed four main changes compared with December 2025: The description of economic growth in the fundamental assessment was adjusted from "moderate expansion" to "solid progress", indicating strong and sustainable economic growth. The description of employment was adjusted from "unemployment rate has started to rise but remained low" to "unemployment rate has shown signs of stabilization", suggesting marginal improvement in the labor market. The policy interest rate remained unchanged, but two governors voted against it, preferring a 0.25 - percentage - point cut in the federal funds rate target range [6]. - Market expectations were that the policy interest rate would remain unchanged, with a 97.2% probability in January and a 70.2% probability in April. The two governors' dissenting votes reflected their consistent stances [8]. - The meeting approved the Fed's long - term goals and monetary policy strategy announced in August 2025, which abandoned the "average inflation target" and returned to a more traditional inflation target [11]. - After the resolution was released, the market reaction was relatively mild. The S&P 500 index remained almost unchanged, the 2 - year U.S. Treasury yield rose 0.3 BP to 3.59%, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield rose 0.6 BP to 4.267%, the spot gold price rose from $5282.85/ounce to $5297.27/ounce, and the U.S. dollar index strengthened slightly by 0.1% [11]. 3.2 Press Conference with a Mild Tone - Powell stated that the upside risks of inflation and the downside risks of employment had both decreased. He also emphasized that commodity inflation was mainly driven by tariffs, and there were signs of deflation in the service industry. He made it clear that a rate hike would not be the baseline scenario [13]. - In the labor market, there were signs of stabilization but it had not reached the final goal. The unemployment rate had changed little in recent months, and the data distortion caused by the government shutdown was gradually alleviating [13]. - The future rate - cut path would still be data - driven. The market reaction was mild. In the half - hour before the press conference, the S&P 500 index rose slightly by 0.12%, the 2 - year U.S. Treasury yield fell 1.7 BP to 3.58%, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield fell 2.2 BP to 4.25%, the spot gold price rose from $5283.3/ounce to $5325.4/ounce, and the U.S. dollar index weakened slightly by 0.29% [14]. 3.3 Market Outlook - In the short term, the U.S. Treasury yield curve may show a bear - steepening trend. It is expected that the 2 - year U.S. Treasury rate will oscillate between 3.4% and 3.8%, and the 10 - year U.S. Treasury rate will oscillate between 4% and 4.4%. The U.S. dollar index may maintain a weak and volatile trend, oscillating between 96 and 101 [18]. - In the medium term, the Trump administration's interference with the Fed's independence has increased the data threshold for future rate cuts. The employment data in the U.S. labor market will be the main driving factor for the future rate - cut rhythm [18]. - The weak U.S. dollar and the wave of foreign exchange settlement have led to an accelerating appreciation trend of the RMB exchange rate. However, the central bank will still aim to stabilize one - sided exchange - rate movements and may intervene in the future. The Chinese bond market is domestically - oriented, less affected by overseas factors. The trading volume is gradually recovering, and it is advisable to maintain a long - position mindset [18].