生鲜软商品板块日度策略报告-20260129

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Soft Commodity Sector - Sugar: The international raw sugar price remains in a low - level narrow - range fluctuation. With an oversupply of international sugar and a large non - commercial net short position in sugar, and sufficient domestic sugar supply, the Zhengzhou sugar futures' fundamentals are loose. It is recommended to short on rebounds for the SR2605 contract [3]. - Pulp: Although the supply pressure eases, the domestic finished paper is in the off - season, and paper mills' restocking motivation is weak. The pulp price is under pressure but supported by the rising cost of warehouse receipts. It is suggested to go long on the 2605 contract near 5200 [3][4]. - Double - offset Paper: The double - offset paper spot is stable, and the upward space of futures is limited. It is advisable to operate in the short - term with a short - bias and hold short positions with appropriate reductions [5][6][7]. - Cotton: Affected by the relatively loose global and US cotton supply and tariff conflicts, the external cotton price may continue to bottom out. The domestic cotton price may slowly move up in the medium - term. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 05 contract cautiously [8]. - Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Sector - Apple: During the Spring Festival stocking period, the market performance is average. The supply - side support still exists, but the marginal driving force decreases. It is recommended to go long on dips for the 2605 contract [9]. - Jujube: The jujube futures price is in a narrow - range shock. The spot supply and demand are both strong, and the futures - spot price difference contradiction is alleviated. It is recommended to close short positions below 9000 points for the 2605 contract, and option strategies can also be considered [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - Fresh Fruit Futures - Apple 2605: Recommend reducing long positions. The support from the decline in new - season output, good - fruit rate, and inventory year - on - year still exists, but the suppression of insufficient consumption growth is increasing. The support range is 8800 - 8900, and the pressure range is 11000 - 11500 [19]. - Jujube 2605: Recommend short - term long positions on dips. The expectation of production reduction may gradually appear in the far - month contracts, and the spot inventory begins to peak and decline. The support range is 8700 - 9000, and the pressure range is 9500 - 9800 [19]. - Soft Commodity Futures - Sugar 2605: Recommend shorting on rebounds. The international and domestic sugar supplies are relatively sufficient. The support range is 5070 - 5100, and the pressure range is 5270 - 5300 [19]. - Pulp 2605: Recommend light - position long positions. The downstream finished paper is in the off - season, and the paper mills' restocking willingness is weak, but the rising cost of warehouse receipts may support the pulp price. The support range is 5200 - 5300, and the pressure range is 5450 - 5500 [19]. - Double - offset Paper 2605: Recommend range - bound operations. The spot market is stable, and the basis expansion provides phased support for the futures price. However, the rising height is still not optimistic. The support range is 4000 - 4100, and the pressure range is 4250 - 4300 [19]. - Cotton 2605: Recommend holding long positions cautiously. The far - end bullish expectation still exists, but the external price is bottoming out, and the internal - external price difference restricts the domestic price. The support range is 13500 - 13600, and the pressure range is 15400 - 15500 [19]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - Apple Market - Fundamental Information: In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. As of January 21, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 6.8278 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 218,800 tons. As of January 22, 2026, it was 6.3232 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 232,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 296,900 tons [20]. - Spot Market Situation: In the Shandong production area, the price of high - quality late - maturing bagged Fuji apples is stable, and the packaging volume in cold storage is acceptable. In the Shaanxi production area, the mainstream price is stable, and the packaging volume in cold storage has increased significantly. In the sales area, the market arrivals are increasing, and the sales are acceptable [20][21]. - Jujube Market: As of January 11, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 15,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 349 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23%, and a year - on - year increase of 41.27%. The acquisition in the production area is basically over, and the market supply and demand are expected to enter a peak period with the approaching of the Lunar New Year [22]. - Sugar Market: India's February 2026 domestic sugar sales quota is 2.25 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from January. Brazil exported 1.7376 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first four weeks of January. As of January 26, 2026, the estimated cost of processed and duty - paid Brazilian sugar within the quota is 3997 yuan/ton, and outside the quota is 5077 yuan/ton. As of January 21, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports increased, and the waiting sugar volume increased by 118,700 tons week - on - week [24]. - Pulp Market: Affected by the decline in futures prices and weakening demand for key resale varieties, the Chinese pulp market continues to weaken. The price of imported NBSK has declined, but the prices of Canadian and Nordic NBSK remain stable [28]. - Double - offset Paper Market: The inventory days of double - offset paper decreased by 2.05% week - on - week, and the decline rate narrowed. The operating load rate was 57.43%, a week - on - week increase of 0.07 percentage points, and the increase rate also narrowed [29]. - Cotton Market: Bangladesh plans to establish a free - trade zone in Chittagong. As of January 23, the cotton sowing progress in Mato Grosso, Brazil, reached 48%, an increase of 19 percentage points from the previous week and higher than the same period last year [30]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - Futures Market Review: On the day, the closing price of Apple 2605 was 9532, up 28 (0.29%); Jujube 2605 was 8830, up 10 (0.11%); Sugar 2605 was 5187, up 19 (0.37%); Pulp 2605 was 5374, up 32 (0.60%); Cotton 2605 was 14940, up 375 (2.57%) [31]. - Spot Market Review: The spot price of apples was 4.45 yuan/jin, unchanged month - on - month and up 0.45 yuan year - on - year; jujubes were 9.40 yuan/kg, down 0.10 yuan month - on - month and down 5.30 yuan year - on - year; sugar was 5270 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month and down 640 yuan year - on - year; pulp (Shandong Yinxing) was 5400 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month and down 1200 yuan year - on - year; double - offset paper (Taiyang Tianyang - Tianjin) was 4350 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month and down 600 yuan year - on - year; cotton was 15933 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan month - on - month and up 1207 yuan year - on - year [35]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation The report provides relevant basis data and charts for apples, jujubes, sugar, pulp, and cotton, but specific numerical summaries are not given in the text. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - Apple: The 5 - 10 spread is 1112, a week - on - week decrease of 15 and a year - on - year increase of 1622. It is expected to be volatile and bullish, and it is recommended to go long on dips [55]. - Jujube: The 5 - 9 spread is - 200, a week - on - week increase of 25 and a year - on - year increase of 180. It is recommended to wait and see [55]. - Sugar: The 5 - 9 spread is - 11, a week - on - week increase of 6 and a year - on - year decrease of 144. It is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [55]. - Cotton: The 5 - 9 spread is - 70, a week - on - week increase of 75 and a year - on - year increase of 80. It is expected to be volatile and bearish, and it is recommended to short on rallies [55]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation The report provides charts of the top 20 long and short positions, trading volume changes, and net long and short position changes for apples, jujubes, sugar, pulp, and cotton, but specific numerical summaries are not given in the text. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - The warehouse receipt volume of apples is 0, unchanged month - on - month and year - on - year. - Jujubes have 3313 warehouse receipts, a month - on - month decrease of 12 and a year - on - year decrease of 703. - Sugar has 13715 warehouse receipts, unchanged month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 10413. - Pulp has 140494 warehouse receipts, unchanged month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 198234. - Cotton has 10209 warehouse receipts, a month - on - month increase of 4 and a year - on - year increase of 3496 [88]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data The report provides option - related data charts for apples, sugar, and cotton, including trading volume, open interest, put - call ratios, and historical volatility, but specific numerical summaries are not given in the text.