养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告-20260129

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The prices of domestic edible oils such as soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are affected by international factors like the US biodiesel policy and the production and inventory situation in palm oil - producing areas, as well as domestic supply - demand fundamentals such as pre - holiday stocking and inventory levels. Short - term trends are mostly bullish, but there are also differences among varieties [1][2]. - The prices of feed products like corn, soybean meal, and rapeseed meal are affected by factors such as supply and demand, import and export situations, and policy expectations. The medium - to - long - term price trends are complex, with some products having supply - side pressure and some having support from demand [3][4][5]. - The prices of livestock and poultry products such as live pigs and eggs are influenced by factors such as production capacity, consumption seasons, and feed costs. The market shows a certain degree of volatility, and different trading strategies are recommended for different varieties [5][6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Analysis | Category | Variety | Market Logic | Support Level | Resistance Level | Market Outlook | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No.1 05 | Low remaining beans at the grassroots level and pre - holiday stocking by downstream support | 4250 - 4300 | 4420 - 4450 | Sideways adjustment | Temporarily wait and see | | | Soybean No.2 05 | Ample domestic soybean supply and good US soybean biodiesel expectations, with long - and short - term factors intertwined | 3380 - 3400 | 3620 - 3650 | Firm operation | Temporarily wait and see | | | Soybean Oil 05 | Positive expectations for the US biodiesel policy and low domestic soybean oil inventory, short - term firm operation, pay attention to oil - meal arbitrage opportunities | 8100 - 8120 | 8560 - 8600 | Sideways up | Hold long positions | | Oils | Rapeseed Oil 05 | There is still an expectation of increased supply, and the rebound height is limited | 8800 - 8810 | 9400 - 9410 | Sideways operation | Reduce long positions | | | Palm Oil 05 | Multiple factors such as US biodiesel, export season expectations, and Indonesia's cancellation of plantations are favorable | 8770 - 8800 | 9370 - 9400 | Sideways up | Hold long positions | | Protein | Soybean Meal 05 | Positive expectations for the US biodiesel policy, a near - harvest of South American soybeans, and expected ample supply of domestic soybean meal, with long - and short - term factors intertwined and insufficient driving force for continued rise | 2600 - 2650 | 2830 - 2850 | Sideways adjustment | Temporarily wait and see | | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | There is still an expectation of increased supply, the rebound height is limited, and demand remains weak | 2190 - 2200 | 2340 - 2350 | Sideways operation | Temporarily wait and see | | Energy and By - products | Corn 03 | There is still support from the decline in high - quality corn supply. Wheat auctions and China Grain Reserves Corporation's corn rotation have limited pressure on the market, and there is still an expectation of downstream replenishment before the Spring Festival | 2160 - 2170 | 2330 - 2350 | Supported | Bullish thinking | | | Starch 03 | Supported by the cost of corn | 2450 - 2460 | 2620 - 2640 | Supported | Bullish thinking | | Livestock Farming | Live Pigs 03 | Feed prices stop falling and rebound, and the expectation of production capacity reduction intensifies | 11000 - 11300 | 12500 - 12800 | Bottom - seeking in a range | Lightly test long positions | | | Eggs 05 | Decrease in newly - opened production and expectations of a consumption peak season | 3300 - 3400 | 3650 - 3700 | Bottom - seeking in a range | Buy on dips | [9] 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - Inter - month Arbitrage: Most varieties are recommended to wait and see, only corn 3 - 5 is recommended to short on rallies [10][11]. - Inter - commodity Arbitrage: For 05 soybean - palm oil, 05 soybean meal - rapeseed meal, and 05 corn - starch, it is recommended to wait and see temporarily; for 05 rapeseed oil - soybean oil and 05 rapeseed oil - palm oil, it is recommended to close positions; for 05 beans oil - meal ratio, it is recommended to consider going long; for 05 rapeseed oil - meal ratio, it is recommended to take a bullish attitude [11]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis and basis changes of various varieties such as soybean, soybean oil, and live pigs [12]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oilseeds and Oils - Daily Data: It includes the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping periods, such as the arrival premium, futures price, CNF price, and arrival duty - paid price [14][15]. - Weekly Data: It shows the inventory changes and operating rates of various oilseeds and oils, such as soybean inventory at ports decreased by 1.39 to 840.24, and soybean oil inventory at ports decreased by 4.20 to 89.20 [16][17]. 3.2.2 Feed - Daily Data: It provides the import cost data of corn from different countries and months, including the CNF price and arrival duty - paid cost [17]. - Weekly Data: It shows the weekly data of corn and corn starch, such as the consumption of corn by deep - processing enterprises was 121.28 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1.62 million tons [18]. 3.2.3 Livestock Farming - It includes the daily and weekly data of live pigs and eggs, such as the daily spot price changes of live pigs in different regions and the weekly key data of live pig production, cost, and slaughter [18][19][20]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - It includes the tracking charts of the livestock - farming end (live pigs and eggs), oilseeds and oils, and feed end, covering price trends, inventory changes, production, and other aspects [21][28][43]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils - It provides charts related to the options of feed, livestock - farming, and oil products, such as the historical volatility of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, and the trading volume and open interest of corn options [84]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils - It provides charts showing the warehouse receipt situations of various products such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil [93].