黑色建材日报：冬储意愿低迷，盘面震荡整理-20260129

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] - Silicomanganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4] Core Views - The glass market is mainly characterized by rigid - demand procurement, with the supply side having a rising expectation of cold - repair of production lines and the demand side showing a differentiated situation. The photovoltaic glass sector is relatively stable, while the float glass sector is in a downturn [1]. - The soda ash market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The high - production and high - inventory state will continue, and the demand is weak. The market sentiment has been repaired to some extent, but its sustainability needs further observation [1]. - The fundamentals of silicomanganese have improved, but the inventory pressure is still large, and there is an expectation of increased demand. The fundamentals of ferrosilicon are controllable, and the demand is expected to improve, but the price increase is restricted [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - Market Analysis: The main glass contract showed a narrow - range oscillating trend, and the spot manufacturers' quotes remained basically the same as the previous day. The downstream market mainly made rigid - demand purchases [1]. - Supply and Demand Logic: The supply side has a rising expectation of cold - repair of production lines, and the inventory has been well reduced recently, but the overall inventory is still at a high level. The demand side is differentiated, with the photovoltaic glass sector being relatively stable and the float glass sector being in a downturn [1]. - Strategy: Oscillating [2] Soda Ash - Market Analysis: The main soda ash contract continued to oscillate. The spot market quotes fluctuated with the high - level of the futures market, and some manufacturers slightly raised their quotes. Downstream enterprises mostly adopted a wait - and - see attitude and had weak purchasing willingness [1]. - Supply and Demand Logic: The soda ash market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The high - production and high - inventory state will continue, which suppresses the price rebound. The demand is weak and needs to track the downstream replenishment rhythm [1]. - Strategy: Oscillating weakly [2] Silicomanganese - Market Analysis: The main silicomanganese contract oscillated within the day. The alloy cost had certain support, with the price in the northern market at 5570 - 5680 yuan/ton and in the southern market at 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton [3]. - Supply and Demand Logic: The fundamentals have improved, but the inventory pressure is large, and there is new production capacity. The demand is expected to improve due to the expected increase in iron - making output and pre - Spring Festival steel mill replenishment. The South African tariff policy may increase the manganese ore cost [3]. - Strategy: Oscillating [4] Ferrosilicon - Market Analysis: The ferrosilicon futures continued to oscillate, the market was slightly adjusted, and the market sentiment stabilized. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas was 5300 - 5350 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 5750 - 5850 yuan/ton [3]. - Supply and Demand Logic: The fundamentals are controllable, and enterprises actively reduce the production load. The demand is expected to improve due to steel mill resumption and winter storage replenishment. The differential electricity price policy in Shaanxi has affected the market sentiment, but the price increase is restricted due to the expected decline in domestic electricity prices and overall over - capacity [3]. - Strategy: Oscillating [4]