郑棉强势上涨，糖价依旧承压

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][3] Core Viewpoints - For cotton, short - term pre - holiday stocking supports cotton prices, but the domestic market faces downstream transmission and internal - external price difference pressures, with prices expected to fluctuate widely. Medium - to - long - term trends depend on the implementation of target price and area - reduction policies [2] - For sugar, short - to - medium - term sugar prices are expected to oscillate and bottom out, with attention on macro - sentiment and capital disturbances [2] - For pulp, despite overseas supply disruptions and rising foreign quotes, the domestic fundamentals improve insufficiently, and pulp prices are expected to continue to oscillate at low levels in the short term [3] Summary by Industry Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2605 contract was 14,940 yuan/ton, up 375 yuan/ton (+2.57%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,618 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,933 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [1] - Brazilian planting: As of January 24, the 2025/26 cotton planting in Brazil was 60.6% complete, up 24.3 percentage points month - on - month and 14.3 percentage points year - on - year [1] Market Analysis - International: In January, USDA lowered global cotton production and ending stocks, but the global supply - demand pattern is still loose, and US cotton export signing progress is slow. In the long - term, US cotton is in a low - valuation range [1] - Domestic: In the 25/26 season, domestic cotton production increased significantly, and commercial inventories rose seasonally. Before the Spring Festival, there was active stocking, but downstream new orders decreased, and finished - product inventories were high. The annual supply - demand is expected to be balanced, with a possibility of tight inventory at the end of the year [1] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract was 5187 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton (+0.37%) from the previous day [2] - Spot: The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5270 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5155 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Indian quota: India announced a February 2026 domestic sugar sales quota of 2.25 million tons, up 50,000 tons from January [2] Market Analysis - Raw sugar: Brazilian sugar inventory is decreasing, and the first - quarter trade flow is in tight balance, supporting raw sugar prices. In the second quarter, supply will increase. In the long - term, the market expects a decline in the Brazilian sugar - making ratio and a reduction in Thai planting area [2] - Zhengzhou sugar: Guangxi sugar mills are in the peak - pressing period, and the fourth - quarter import supply pressure remains. The annual syrup import volume has decreased. The domestic sugar market is in the inventory - accumulation phase, with limited downward space [2] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract was 5374 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton (+0.60%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4965 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [3] - Market: The import wood pulp spot market price was mainly stable, with only individual price drops [3] Market Analysis - Supply: There were many overseas pulp mill shutdown and maintenance news at the end of 2025, and foreign quotes increased, driving pulp prices to rebound. However, the global wood pulp inventory is still accumulating [3] - Demand: In November, the European port wood pulp inventory decreased month - on - month, but in China, despite a large number of finished - paper production capacity put into operation, the terminal demand was insufficient, and port inventories were at a historical high [3]