Huachuang Securities·2026-01-29 04:29Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the computer industry, expecting the industry index to rise more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [4][19]. Core Insights - The supply-demand dynamics in the CPU market are improving, with leading domestic companies potentially facing a revaluation opportunity due to significant demand from large-scale cloud service providers [2][8]. - The number of active agents is projected to surge from approximately 28.6 million in 2025 to 2.216 billion by 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of 139%, driving massive demand for computing power [8]. - The construction expenditure for data centers in the U.S. is expected to double year-on-year, reaching $43.8 billion by October 2025, indicating a robust expansion in AI data center capacity [8]. - The report highlights that the CPU supply may enter a tight balance due to constraints in advanced process resources and packaging bottlenecks, with manufacturers adopting conservative strategies to reduce production and inventory levels [8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The computer industry consists of 337 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 640.98 billion yuan [4]. - The absolute performance of the industry has shown significant growth, with a 41.3% increase over the past 12 months [5]. Demand Side - The demand for CPUs is expected to escalate due to the explosion of agent applications, which require CPUs to support multi-threading and dynamic load adjustments [8]. - The report emphasizes the dual driving forces of structural demand from agent applications and large-scale data center construction, which are anticipated to propel a new growth cycle in the CPU industry [8]. Supply Side - Advanced process resources are being prioritized for high-margin products like GPUs, leading to reduced wafer allocations for consumer and enterprise processors [8]. - The report notes that the packaging technology bottleneck is causing significant delays in CPU shipment cycles, extending from the normal 8-10 weeks to over 24 weeks [8]. - The report identifies a shortage of critical materials, such as low-CTE glass, which is essential for the industry's transition to glass substrates [8]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on CPU opportunities amid industry changes, highlighting companies like Haiguang Information, Loongson Technology, and China Great Wall as key players poised for growth [8].