白糖周报：白糖市场震荡寻底，供应压力与成本支撑博弈加剧-20260129

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The current sugar market is in a bottom - oscillating phase, with the core contradiction being the intense game between strong supply pressure and strong cost support. The market is expected to continue to oscillate within the core range of 5100 - 5250 yuan/ton, and the direction selection requires new drivers. In the short term, prices will repeatedly test around the cost line and are unlikely to have a trend - breaking breakthrough [3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Review - The 11 - sugar continuous contract closed at 14.73 this Friday, down 1.54% week - on - week; the Zhengzhou sugar main contract closed at 5180, down 1.48% week - on - week. Spot prices in Nanning, Liuzhou, Kunming, and Rizhao Lingyunhai all declined, with Liuzhou's spot price down 0.94% to 5290 yuan/ton. The basis of Liuzhou sugar and the main contract increased by 34.15% to 110 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 2.70% to 13745, and the effective forecast decreased by 63.64% to 132. The total of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts decreased by 4.22%. The long positions in CFTC non - commercial positions increased by 4.14%, the short positions increased by 0.11%, and the net long positions increased by 7.63%. The bullish ratio of Zhengzhou sugar decreased by 10 percentage points to 10%, the bearish ratio increased by 10 percentage points to 60%, and the neutral ratio remained unchanged at 30% [5] 1.2 Domestic Futures and Spot - No specific content provided 1.3 Raw Sugar Futures - No specific content provided 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 China's Sugar Production and Sales - No specific content provided 2.2 Production and Sales of Sugarcane Sugar in Main Producing Areas in China - No specific content provided 2.3 Production and Sales of Beet Sugar in Main Producing Areas in China - No specific content provided 2.4 China's White Sugar Industrial Inventory - No specific content provided 2.5 China's Sugar Imports and Exports - No specific content provided 2.6 China's Main Sugar Importing Countries - No specific content provided 2.7 China's Sugar Import Cost and Profit - For Brazil, the in - quota processing cost increased by 3.42% to 4021, and the out - quota processing cost increased by 3.51% to 5130. The in - quota import profit decreased by 8.47% to 1728, and the out - quota import profit decreased by 24.39% to 620. The premium increased by 166.67% to 0.16, and the shipping cost increased by 11.03% to 36.85. For Thailand, the in - quota processing cost increased by 1.94% to 4000, and the out - quota processing cost increased by 2.00% to 5102. The in - quota import profit decreased by 5.51% to 1750, and the out - quota import profit decreased by 16.28% to 648. The premium remained unchanged at 0.89, and the shipping cost remained unchanged at 18 [30] 3. International Market Fundamentals 3.1 Available Sugar Quantity in Brazil - No specific content provided 3.2 Sugarcane Crushing Volume in Brazil - No specific content provided 3.3 Sugar Production in Brazil - No specific content provided 3.4 Ethanol Production in Brazil - No specific content provided 3.5 Sugar Imports and Exports in Brazil - No specific content provided 3.6 International Raw Sugar Premium and Shipping Cost - No specific content provided