库存窄幅波动，现货成交火爆

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a unilateral strategy of oscillating upward, a positive spread arbitrage for UR05 - 09 when the price difference is low, and no cross - variety strategy [3] Core Viewpoints - The urea futures market is oscillating upward due to sentiment, with good spot trading and low pressure on pre - holiday orders. Attention should be paid to the policy - guided price ceiling for spot prices. In January, supply increased as some gas - based and technologically - upgraded enterprises resumed production. On the demand side, agricultural demand for winter and spring fertilizers continued, and compound fertilizer production and melamine production also increased their demand. Factory inventories decreased slightly, and port inventories remained stable. International urea prices rose due to the situation in Iran, and India is expected to issue another tender. The export quota in China has no new news, and attention should be paid to export dynamics, the pace of off - season reserves release, and the sustainability of spot purchasing sentiment [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On January 28, 2026, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1799 yuan/ton (+9). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1760 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong was 1760 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Jiangsu was 1780 yuan/ton (+10). The basis in Shandong was - 39 yuan/ton (-9), in Henan was - 39 yuan/ton (+1), and in Jiangsu was - 19 yuan/ton (+1) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of January 28, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises was 86.39% (0.08%), and the total inventory of sample enterprises was 94.49 million tons (-0.11 million tons), while the port sample inventory was 13.40 million tons (unchanged) [1] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The urea production profit was 195 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the export profit was 951 yuan/ton (-14) [1] 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - Affected by the situation in Iran, international urea prices rose, and India is expected to issue another tender. The current export quota in China has no new news [2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of January 28, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 42.96% (+2.88%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 63.65% (+1.47%), and the number of pre - received order days for urea enterprises was 6.59 days (+0.71) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The overall urea factory inventory decreased slightly this week, remaining basically flat, and the port inventory remained unchanged [2]