山东烧碱库存累库速度放缓

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market remains weak. Although there was a rush to export before April, the export is expected to decline significantly after April, and the supply - demand relationship of subsequent contracts will be looser [3]. - The spot price of caustic soda continues to be weak, and the supply - demand is also weak. The inventory in Shandong is still accumulating, but the speed has slowed down. Attention should be paid to the downstream receiving sentiment and the fluctuations of liquid chlorine downstream devices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures prices and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4913 yuan/ton (+2), the East China basis is - 213 yuan/ton (-2), and the South China basis is - 193 yuan/ton (-2) [1]. - Spot prices: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4700 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4720 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - Upstream production profits: The semi - coke price is 735 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2855 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is - 23 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is - 800 yuan/ton (-137), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is - 49 yuan/ton (+89), and the PVC export profit is - 5.8 US dollars/ton (-0.8) [1]. - PVC inventory and operation: The in - factory inventory of PVC is 30.8 tons (-0.3), the social inventory is 57.6 tons (+1.5), the calcium carbide - based PVC operation rate is 80.14% (-0.52%), the ethylene - based PVC operation rate is 73.04% (-2.44%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 77.98% (-1.10%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 88.4 tons (-4.2) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures prices and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 1969 yuan/ton (+18), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 97 yuan/ton (-31) [1]. - Spot prices: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 599 yuan/ton (-4), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1010 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - Upstream production profits: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 855 yuan/ton (-8), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 414.2 yuan/ton (-5.3), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 492.83 yuan/ton (+14.75), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 550.29 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 50.96 tons (-0.25), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 2.79 tons (-0.11), and the operation rate of caustic soda is 87.70% (+1.00%) [2]. - Caustic soda downstream operation: The operation rate of alumina is 85.18% (-0.65%), the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 56.54% (-2.22%), and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber is 88.43% (+0.00%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - The export tax rebate for PVC was cancelled on April 1st, and there was a rush to export before April. The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market remains weak. The domestic supply is abundant, the downstream operation is expected to decline, and the inventory is at a high level. The cost - side profit has been slightly repaired, but it is still at a low level year - on - year. The futures hedging pressure on the disk still exists [3]. Caustic Soda - The spot price of caustic soda continues to be weak, and the supply - demand is also weak. The inventory in Shandong is still accumulating, but the speed has slowed down. The supply - side operation is at a high level, the demand - side receiving sentiment is average, and the export orders continue to be sluggish [3]. Strategy PVC - Single - side: Oscillation [4][5] - Inter - period: Go long on the V05 - 09 spread when it is low [4] - Inter - variety: None [4][5] Caustic Soda - Single - side: Oscillation [5] - Inter - period: Wait - and - see [5] - Inter - variety: None [5]