GF SECURITIES·2026-01-29 04:34Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate-A/Accumulate-H" rating to the company, with a current price of 6.26 CNY and a reasonable value of 6.43 CNY for A shares, and 5.38 HKD with a reasonable value of 5.75 HKD for H shares [4]. Core Views - The company is the only highway platform under Shudao Group, focusing on both expansion and optimization of existing assets. It is backed by the Sichuan Provincial State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [9]. - The company has a strong cash flow and has increased its dividend payout ratio to 60%, highlighting its asset dividend characteristics [9]. - The strategic location of the company's assets supports steady growth in toll revenue, with an expected toll income of 4.777 billion CNY in 2024, showing a strong CAGR over the past three years [9]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the Sichuan Province's transportation planning, which is among the fastest in the country, and the integration of the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle [9]. - The company aims to optimize existing assets while expanding its portfolio through upgrades, asset integration, and acquisitions, which are expected to enhance performance and shareholder returns in the medium to long term [9]. Financial Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to decline from 11.652 billion CNY in 2023 to 9.812 billion CNY by 2027, with a significant drop in 2024 due to the end of construction-related income [2]. - EBITDA is expected to increase from 3.577 billion CNY in 2023 to 4.475 billion CNY in 2027, indicating a positive trend in operational efficiency [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow from 1.187 billion CNY in 2023 to 1.784 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [2]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.39 CNY in 2023 to 0.58 CNY in 2027, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio projected to remain stable around 10.7 to 11.9 [2]. Company Overview - The company operates a total of approximately 900 kilometers of highways, with 858 kilometers being toll roads, and has a competitive average remaining toll collection period of 12.38 years [22][27]. - The company’s core assets include major highways such as Chengyu, Chengya, Chengle, and Chengren, which are critical for connecting economically developed and tourist areas in Sichuan [9][23]. - The company has shown a robust performance in toll revenue, with a CAGR of 11.01% from 2021 to 2024, reaching a peak of 4.777 billion CNY in 2024 [29].