市场情绪偏强，期货盘面大幅上涨

1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The sharp rise of the asphalt futures market on January 28 was stimulated by multiple factors including cost, fundamentals, and capital. Although the upward movement is supported by substantial positive factors, considering the large increase and weakened basis, short - term caution is advised due to uncertainties from geopolitical and capital games [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - On January 28, the closing price of the main BU2603 contract for asphalt futures in the afternoon session was 3,410 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton from the previous day's settlement price, a 3.96% increase. The open interest was 175,279 lots, up 11,938 lots, and the trading volume was 454,575 lots, down 265,014 lots [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are: 3,406 - 3,550 yuan/ton in Northeast China, 3,130 - 3,300 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3,250 - 3,300 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,200 - 3,230 yuan/ton in East China [1][3] - The cost - side factors include the recent strong oil prices. The US cold wave led to a decline in oil production, and the复产 progress of Kazakhstan's Tengiz oilfield was slow. Also, the escalating situation in Iran increased the geopolitical premium of crude oil [1] - In terms of asphalt's own fundamentals, the market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Terminal consumption is in the off - season, but refinery operating rates and product release volumes are also low, resulting in tight local supplies. The supply of Venezuelan crude oil to domestic refineries has decreased significantly, and the discount of diluted asphalt for forward - month quotes has risen, raising the expected cost of asphalt raw materials [1] - Due to concerns about raw material tightening after March, forward - contract quotes are relatively firm, which has boosted spot prices. There has also been an obvious inflow of funds into the chemical sector recently, and asphalt may attract non - industrial funds [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term trend is oscillating upward, and early long - position holders can consider taking profits. No strategies are proposed for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, or options trading [3]