成本端支撑偏强，市场延续上行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost side has strong support, and the market continues to rise. The cost - end oil and propane prices are rising, driving the polyolefin market sentiment to remain high, but the current supply - demand fundamentals of polyolefins are still weak [3][4]. - For PE, the cost - end support continues, but the supply is expected to increase and the demand is in the off - season, and the rebound sustainability needs to pay attention to the macro - level guidance and inventory destocking process [3]. - For PP, the cost - end support is enhanced, but the supply is difficult to have obvious support, and the demand support is insufficient. The rebound space may be limited by the destocking pressure in the off - season [4]. - The strategy suggests LLDPE and PP to cautiously go long on dips for hedging, and to shrink the LLDPE - PP spread when it is high [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Price and Basis: The closing price of the L main contract is 6967 yuan/ton (+68), and the PP main contract is 6778 yuan/ton (+69). LL North China spot is 6830 yuan/ton (+70), LL East China spot is 6900 yuan/ton (+20), and PP East China spot is 6610 yuan/ton (+90). LL North China basis is - 137 yuan/ton (+2), LL East China basis is - 67 yuan/ton (-48), and PP East China basis is - 168 yuan/ton (+21) [1]. - Upstream Supply: PE operating rate is 84.7% (+3.1%), and PP operating rate is 76.0% (+0.4%) [1]. - Production Profit: PE oil - based production profit is 72.5 yuan/ton (-161.0), PP oil - based production profit is - 527.5 yuan/ton (-161.0), and PDH - based PP production profit is - 621.0 yuan/ton (+44.0) [1]. - Import and Export: LL import profit is 365.7 yuan/ton (-11.8), PP import profit is - 412.8 yuan/ton (-33.1), and PP export profit is - 68.1 US dollars/ton (-1.1) [2]. - Downstream Demand: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 36.3% (-0.6%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 45.0% (-3.2%), PP downstream plastic braiding operating rate is 42.0% (-0.6%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 64.0% (+0.5%) [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - PE: Geopolitical disturbances intensify, the cost - end crude oil price fluctuates upward, and the ethane supply price soars. The supply is expected to increase, while the demand is in the off - season, and the downstream purchasing power weakens. The cost and capital sentiment are the main drivers of the market [3]. - PP: The cost - end propane support is enhanced, and the international oil price fluctuates upward. The PDH is in deep loss, and the supply is difficult to support. The demand is in the off - season, and the new orders are limited. The cost and macro - sentiment drive the market upward, but the destocking pressure may limit the rebound space [4]. 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously go long on dips for LLDPE and PP hedging, and pay attention to the geopolitical situation [5]. - Inter - period: No relevant strategy [5]. - Cross - variety: Shrink the LLDPE - PP spread when it is high [5].