液化石油气日报：2月CP预期上调，内盘阻力仍存-20260129

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The market supply of LPG faces certain risks due to the escalating situation in Iran and the US sending warships to the Middle East. The US cold wave also has a positive impact on LPG. However, excluding geopolitical and seasonal factors, the endogenous upward driving force of the LPG market is relatively limited, especially the performance of the domestic PG is weaker than that of the overseas propane and butane. The high raw material import costs suppress the profits of downstream PDH and other devices, resulting in negative demand feedback. The price inversion of etherified C4 and civil gas also exerts additional pressure on the PG market. In the medium term, the overseas supply growth trend continues, and the global balance sheet remains in a situation of oversupply [1]. - The short - term strategy for LPG is to be oscillating and slightly stronger, and attention should be paid to the development of the Iranian situation [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 28, the regional prices of LPG were as follows: Shandong market, 4360 - 4440 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 3940 - 4100 yuan/ton; North China market, 4150 - 4450 yuan/ton; East China market, 4170 - 4390 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4780 - 5080 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4270 - 4440 yuan/ton; South China market, 4790 - 4900 yuan/ton [1]. - In the second half of February 2026, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in East China were 633 US dollars/ton and 623 US dollars/ton respectively, up 6 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 4861 yuan/ton and 4784 yuan/ton in RMB, up 39 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane were 625 US dollars/ton and 615 US dollars/ton respectively, up 6 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 4800 yuan/ton and 4723 yuan/ton in RMB, up 39 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term oscillating and slightly stronger, pay attention to the development of the Iranian situation. - Cross - period: None. - Cross - variety: None. - Spot - futures: None. - Options: None [2]