PA联盟价格逐步修正，主力合约短期走势预计震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The PA Alliance price is gradually being corrected, and the short - term trend of the main contract is expected to be volatile. The February contract is expected to be volatile, and the April contract has a bearish driving force. The far - month contracts are expected to have large fluctuations due to the uncertainty of the Suez Canal's resumption time and relatively fewer deliveries of ultra - large vessels in 2026 [1][5][7] 3. Summary by Directory I. Futures Price - As of January 28, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures was 63,340.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 46,760.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1719.00, 1229.00, 1493.20, 1560.80, 1135.10, and 1403.10 respectively [6] II. Spot Price - On January 23, 2026, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1595 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 2084 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 2896 US dollars/FEU. On January 26, 2026, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1859.31 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1294.32 points [6] III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - Static Supply: As of December 31, 2025, 268 container ships with a total capacity of 2.155 million TEU were delivered in 2025. Among them, 80 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 1.213 million TEU; 13 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 277,672 TEU. In terms of delivery expectations, for 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships, 781,200 TEU (53 ships) will be delivered in 2026, 944,500 TEU (64 ships) in 2027, 1.212 million TEU (82 ships) in 2028, and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) in 2029. For ships over 17,000 TEU, 210,400 TEU (9 ships) will be delivered in 2026, 862,800 TEU (40 ships) in 2027, 1.5734 million TEU (78 ships) in 2028, and 1.3755 million TEU (67 ships) in 2029. Overall, the delivery pressure of ultra - large vessels in 2026 is relatively small, and the annual delivery volume of ships over 17,000 TEU in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships [2][3] - Dynamic Supply: The average weekly capacity in February was 283,000 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 6, 7, 8, and 9 were 340,000, 342,000, 261,100, and 188,300 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in March was 295,800 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 10, 11, 12, 13, and 14 were 252,400, 338,600, 348,700, 285,200, and 254,500 TEU respectively. There were 13 blank sailings in February (6 for the OA Alliance, 6 for the PA Alliance, and 1 for the Gemini Alliance) and 5 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in March [3] IV. Supply Chain - Hamas has never agreed to hand over its weapons, and any arrangement for Gaza must be achieved through a memorandum of understanding with Hamas. Maersk announced on January 15 that it would resume the Suez Canal route for its MECL service as the stability in the Red Sea improved [2] V. Demand and European Economy - In normal years, April and October are the months with the lowest freight rates in a year. The cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate for photovoltaic and other products by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration on January 8, 2026, may disrupt the shipping rhythm of relevant industries and further affect the pricing strategies of shipping companies. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the freight volume from the Far East to Europe in February and March can increase significantly and whether the actual freight rates will be firmer than in normal years [5]