新能源及有色金属日报：高价抑制采购积极性-20260129

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral strategy: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage strategy: Neutral [5] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The weakening of the US dollar and the Middle - East crisis have led to a rise in zinc prices, but high prices have dampened downstream procurement enthusiasm, causing the spot premium to decline [4] - The fundamentals are relatively strong. Although it is gradually entering the consumption off - season, there is no inventory accumulation trend in social inventories [4] - Domestic zinc ore supply remains weak, but winter reserve inventory of domestic smelters is basically completed due to imported ore supplements [4] - Imported ore continues to decline. Before the new - year Benchmark is signed, it is difficult for the imported ore TC to rise [4] - Comprehensive smelting is still facing losses, and the supply pressure of zinc ingots is unlikely to appear [4] - Long - term consumption is still promising, inventory pressure is not high, zinc price valuation is still low, and the callback space of zinc prices is limited even if short - term sentiment weakens [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is -$30.81 per ton [1] - SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rises by 480 yuan/ton to 25,240 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 5 yuan/ton [1] - SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rises by 480 yuan/ton to 25,300 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 20 yuan/ton [1] - Tianjin zinc spot price rises by 500 yuan/ton to 25,190 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 45 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On January 28, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opens at 24,920 yuan/ton and closes at 25,605 yuan/ton, up 605 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] - The trading volume for the whole trading day is 284,497 lots, and the holding volume is 118,199 lots [2] - The highest intraday price reaches 25,645 yuan/ton, and the lowest reaches 24,820 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - As of January 28, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven SMM regions is 116,800 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous period [3] - As of January 28, 2026, the LME zinc inventory is 110,375 tons, a decrease of 175 tons from the previous trading day [3]