新能源及有色金属日报：中东危机引供应担忧-20260129

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Neutral [9] Core Viewpoints - The Middle East crisis has led to concerns about aluminum supply. Trump's remarks on the US dollar caused a significant decline in the US dollar index, and Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz has raised concerns about overseas aluminum supply. The long - term macro factors are the main logic for the long - term rise in aluminum prices, but in the short term, aluminum prices need to be corrected [6]. - The Middle East crisis has a negative impact on alumina. The supply - demand pattern of alumina is in surplus, and the social inventory will continue to increase [7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 24,260 yuan/ton, with a change of 390 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium/discount is - 180 yuan/ton, with a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Central China A00 aluminum price is 24,120 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount has changed - 40 yuan/ton to - 320 yuan/ton. Foshan A00 aluminum price is 24,230 yuan/ton, with a change of 360 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium/discount has changed - 40 yuan/ton to - 205 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Futures - On January 28, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 24,305 yuan/ton, closed at 25,640 yuan/ton, with a change of 1,395 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price reached 25,680 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 24,155 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 937,111 lots, and the position was 362,833 lots [2]. Aluminum Inventory - As of January 28, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 777,000 tons, with a change of 34,000 tons from the previous period; the warrant inventory was 142,829 tons, with a change of 1,377 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 499,975 tons, with a change of - 2,275 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On January 28, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,610 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,555 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,635 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,685 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,740 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 308 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On January 28, 2026, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,741 yuan/ton, closed at 2,811 yuan/ton, with a change of 89 yuan/ton (3.27%) from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price reached 2,816 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,722 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 873,641 lots, and the position was 466,716 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On January 28, 2026, the procurement price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 18,300 yuan/ton, and the procurement price of mechanical raw aluminum was 18,700 yuan/ton, with a price change of 400 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 23,700 yuan/ton, with a price change of 500 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 67,000 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 65,100 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 22,874 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 426 yuan/ton [5].