新能源及有色金属日报：保证金政策调整，镍不锈钢震荡下行-20260129

1. Report Sector Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The nickel and stainless steel markets are experiencing a downward trend due to margin policy adjustments. The nickel market is facing a tug - of - war between supply contraction expectations and weak demand, with prices highly volatile in the short term. The stainless steel market's core issue is the balance between cost and demand, and prices are also subject to short - term fluctuations [1][3][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On January 28, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2603 opened at 147,100 yuan/ton and closed at 144,370 yuan/ton, a - 1.31% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 404,592 (- 118,804) lots, and the open interest was 27,881 (- 2,279) lots. The price showed a downward trend due to the Fed's interest - rate meeting, high refined nickel inventory, and margin policy adjustments [1] - The nickel ore market is stable after price increases, with a calm trading atmosphere. Indonesian nickel ore supply is tight, and the approval of mining work plans and budgets is slow. The spot price of Jinchuan Group in Shanghai decreased by 1,900 yuan/ton to 151,300 yuan/ton, and the spot premiums of various refined nickel brands decreased [2] Strategy - The market is divided between supply contraction expectations and weak demand. Short - term prices are easily affected by policies and funds, showing a wide - range oscillation pattern. The recommended strategy for single - side trading is range - bound operations [3] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On January 28, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel 2603 opened at 14,580 yuan/ton and closed at 14,465 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 312,567 (- 16,363) lots, and the open interest was 123,373 (- 4,171) lots. The price showed a weak oscillation pattern due to the approaching Spring Festival, reduced market activity, and seasonal weakening of demand. The supply is still sufficient in the short term, and the inventory decline has slowed down [3][4] - The downstream restocking demand has not been released, and the spot price has decreased with the futures price. The stainless steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and the average ex - factory tax - included price of high - nickel pig iron increased by 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 1,054.0 yuan/nickel point [4] Strategy - The core contradiction is the balance between cost and demand. If the supply contraction in Indonesia is realized and the nickel - iron price continues to rise, the price may maintain a high - level oscillation. If the demand remains weak and the inventory is high, the price may face downward pressure. The short - term strategy is range - bound operations, and the medium - term strategy is to wait for a clear trend [5]