我国高硫燃料油进口呈现增长态势

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The domestic high - sulfur fuel oil imports are showing an increasing trend. The high - sulfur fuel oil market structure has marginally improved recently, with spot discounts, monthly spreads, and crack spreads strengthening significantly, and downstream demand performing relatively well. The low - sulfur fuel oil market currently has limited contradictions and mainly follows the passive increase of the crude oil end, with the crack spread oscillating strongly recently. The remaining capacity is large, and the contradiction of the substitution of the demand share at the ship - fuel end still exists, which will be a continuous upward resistance. However, the high premium of gasoline and diesel will continue to divert low - sulfur oil components, providing a certain support for the valuation [1][2] - In the short term, both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils are expected to be oscillating strongly. Attention should be paid to the development of the Iranian situation. For cross - period trading, pay attention to the opportunity of going long the spread between FU2603 and FU2605 (positive spread) at low prices [3] Group 3: Market Analysis - The main contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed up 2.23% at 2751 yuan/ton during the day session, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 2.31% at 3232 yuan/ton. The cold wave in the United States has caused a decline in oil production, and the resumption of production at the Tengiz oil field in Kazakhstan is slow, resulting in a phased positive on the supply side. The oil price rose again yesterday, boosting the energy sector. The Iranian situation remains unclear, and the market may be repeatedly disturbed by news in the short term [1] - In terms of the fundamentals of fuel oil itself, the market structure of high - sulfur oil has improved marginally recently. After the United States gradually controls Venezuelan oil resources, domestic asphalt refineries need to find alternative raw materials, and fuel oil is one of the options. According to shipping schedule data, the estimated arrivals of high - sulfur fuel oil in January and February in China are 980,000 tons and 1.06 million tons respectively, significantly higher than the 830,000 tons in December. In addition, the supply from Russia and Iran faces potential threats from geopolitical conflicts, which poses an upward risk to the fuel oil market. However, if the Iranian situation eases, FU does not have the momentum to continue to strengthen [1] - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the current market contradictions are limited, mainly following the passive increase of the crude oil end. With the dynamic changes of the Dangote and Azur refinery plants, the supply in Nigeria and Kuwait has increased significantly. In addition, after the widening of the east - west spread, the volume of arbitrage cargoes in February may increase, and the local market pressure may increase. Looking forward, the contradictions of large remaining capacity and the substitution of the demand share at the ship - fuel end still exist, which will be a continuous upward resistance. But based on the current valuation level, the high premium of gasoline and diesel will continue to divert low - sulfur oil components, providing a certain support for the valuation [2] Group 4: Strategy - High - sulfur: Oscillating strongly in the short term, pay attention to the development of the Iranian situation [3] - Low - sulfur: Oscillating strongly in the short term, pay attention to the development of the Iranian situation [3] - Cross - variety: No strategy [3] - Cross - period: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long the spread between FU2603 and FU2605 (positive spread) at low prices [3] - Spot - futures: No strategy [3] - Options: No strategy [3]