——2026年1月FOMC会议点评：一季度美联储重启降息概率不高

Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75% during the January meeting, aligning with market expectations[2] - The market anticipated a pause in rate cuts with a probability exceeding 97% prior to the meeting[5] Economic Conditions - After three rate cuts in 2025, the current U.S. interest rate is close to the neutral rate, with a stabilizing job market and improved liquidity in financial markets, but inflation has not yet shown a downward trend[3] - The unemployment rate decreased from 4.5% in November 2025 to 4.4% in December 2025, indicating a stabilizing job market[7] Inflation and Future Projections - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2025 was 2.7%, unchanged from November, still above the Fed's 2% target, with expectations of a potential rise to 3.0% in March 2026[7] - The Fed is expected to maintain a cautious approach to rate cuts, with potential cuts of 2-3 times in 2026, particularly if tariff-related inflation shows signs of easing by mid-year[15] Market Reactions - Following the January meeting, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite Index showed minor fluctuations, with changes of +0.02%, -0.01%, and +0.17% respectively[4] - The 10-year Treasury yield rose by 2 basis points to 4.26%, while the 2-year yield increased by 3 basis points to 3.56%[4] Risks - Key risks include faster-than-expected inflation, economic downturns, potential interference in Fed appointments, and escalating international trade conflicts[17]