宏观偏暖需求压制，钢价震荡运行

Report Title - "Macro Favorable but Demand Constrained, Steel Prices Fluctuate - Weekly Report 20260126" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall inventory of the five major steel products increased due to the weakening of terminal demand. The main inventory - accumulating variety was rebar, with increased production and decreased demand, showing off - season pressure. Although the inventory increased, the absolute inventory was still low. Hot - rolled coil production and demand both declined, and the inventory decline slowed down. Steel exports showed certain resilience. In the short term, the contradiction of steel inventory accumulation was limited, and the raw material end did not show significant negative feedback pressure. Steel prices were supported but lacked strong driving force and would fluctuate [3]. Summary by Directory 01 Market Review - Supported by macro - favorable factors, steel prices first fell and then rose. The weekly price slightly declined, and the basis narrowed. The inventory of rebar increased, and the decline of hot - rolled coil inventory narrowed. Terminal demand was limited [9]. - Specific price and inventory data: For example, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton with a weekly change, and the futures warehouse receipt of rebar decreased by 43193. The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil had different changes in factory and social inventories [9]. 02 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis Production - Rebar weekly output was 199.55 tons (up 4.86% week - on - week and 14.60% year - on - year), and the national hot - rolled coil weekly output was 305.41 tons (down 0.96% week - on - week and 5.34% year - on - year). Rebar blast furnace output increased, and electric furnace output decreased. The blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates both slightly declined [15][16][19]. Profit - Rebar profit slightly decreased to +61 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan/ton week - on - week and 53 yuan/ton year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil profit slightly recovered to +1 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 30 yuan/ton year - on - year) [24][26]. Demand - The apparent consumption of rebar was 185.52 tons (down 2.53% week - on - week and up 58.69% year - on - year), and the apparent consumption of hot - rolled coil was 309.96 tons (down 1.34% week - on - week and up 2.44% year - on - year). The demand for both rebar and hot - rolled coil declined [27][31]. Inventory - Rebar inventory increased, with both factory and social inventories rising. The total rebar inventory was 452.1 tons (up 3.20 week - on - week and down 6.44% year - on - year). The decline of hot - rolled coil inventory narrowed, with a slight increase in factory inventory and a decrease in social inventory. The total hot - rolled coil inventory was 357.78 tons (down 1.26% week - on - week and up 6.32% year - on - year) [32][36][37]. Downstream - In the real - estate sector, the weekly sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 7.80% week - on - week and 32.32% year - on - year, and the land transaction area in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 49% week - on - week and 69% year - on - year. In the automotive sector, in December 2025, automobile production and sales decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [41][43][44]. 03 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil slightly widened, and the 5 - 10 spread of rebar and hot - rolled coil fluctuated narrowly. The coil - to - rebar spread widened, and the 5 - 9 spread of coking coal slightly widened [48][53]