铁矿周报2026、1、28：节前补库需求支撑仍在-20260129

Report Information - Report Title: Iron Ore Weekly Report 2026/1/28 [1] - Author: Kang Jian [1] -从业资格证号: F03088041 [1] -交易咨询证号: Z0019583 [1] - Research Contact: kangjian@zjtfqh.com [1] -审核: Li Wentao [1] -交易咨询证号: Z0015640 [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Supply has stabilized and is rising, downstream profits are stable, hot metal production is fluctuating within a narrow range, downstream demand is fair, and the short - term supply - demand situation is loose. However, pre - holiday restocking demand remains, so iron ore may maintain a volatile trend. [4] - The monthly spread of iron ore may remain volatile in the short term. [5] Summary by Directory Supply - Global iron ore shipments have stabilized and slightly increased. Reuters data shows that on January 24, 2026, the 7 - day moving average of global iron ore shipments (excluding mainland China) was 4327 thousand tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.2% and a year - on - year increase of 70.7%. Australian shipments were 2352 thousand tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.8% and a year - on - year increase of 114.6%, and Brazilian shipments were 905.9 thousand tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12.1% but a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. [24][29] - Except for India, non - mainstream shipments are 82% higher year - on - year. [33] - The total arrival volume has declined, but it is still higher year - on - year. The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 129.7 thousand tons last week. [52][101] - The total output of domestic iron ore continues to rise. [107] Demand - The profitability rate of steel mills has increased, and hot metal production has slightly increased. The daily average hot metal production of 247 samples was 228.1 thousand tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 thousand tons, and the average daily hot metal production in January was about 228 thousand tons, indicating stable demand. [10][110] - The profits of finished steel products are stable, and the scrap - to - pig iron price difference in Tangshan is stable. [114] - The weekly output of the five major steel products has slightly increased, the profits of finished steel products are stable, the demand for rebar has slightly decreased, and the demand for hot - rolled coils has slightly decreased. [133] Inventory - Port inventory has increased. The 45 - port inventory increased by 212 thousand tons, and the proportion of traded ore was 66.3%, a slight increase compared to the previous period. [152] - The total inventory of imported ore in steel mills increased by 127 thousand tons, the inventory in steel mills decreased by 2.53 thousand tons, and the inventory of floating cargoes + port inventory increased by 129.1 thousand tons. The available days of imported ore increased by 2 days to 23 days. [162] Price - Futures and spot prices have declined in a volatile manner, the basis is stable, and the 5 - 9 monthly spread has slightly decreased. [169] - The basis of the 05 contract is about 3%, and the basis is stable, with the basis rate slightly decreasing by 0.2%. [10] - The decline in the premium of Brazilian fines has slowed down, the premiums of mainstream low - to - medium - grade ores are stable, and the price difference between domestic and foreign ores continues to increase slightly. [9][179][182] - Ocean freight has stabilized and rebounded, and the import profits of mainstream varieties are stable. [185][191] - The average value of the Platts Index in January was 105, corresponding to a disk valuation of about 782. [8][193] Balance Sheet - The total supply and consumption of iron ore show different trends over time. The total supply in 2026/1 was 12386 million tons, and the consumption was 12538 million tons, with a surplus of - 342 million tons. [195] - Due to the continuously high year - on - year hot metal production, the report slightly increased the demand forecast for iron ore. [195]