氢能行业 2026 年度投资策略：从技术降本迈向规模化降本，期待“十五五”放量

Core Insights - The hydrogen industry in China is experiencing steady growth in both supply and demand, with applications expanding across various sectors. The country is the largest hydrogen producer globally, with an expected production of approximately 36.5 million tons in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [4][17]. - The economic viability of hydrogen energy is improving due to declining green electricity costs, inclusion in the CCER (China Certified Emission Reduction) program, and technological advancements in cost reduction. The transition from technical cost reduction to large-scale cost reduction is anticipated during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [4][8]. - The hydrogen industry chain, including production, storage, transportation, and application, is developing rapidly, warranting attention [4][9]. Supply and Demand Status - China's hydrogen production is projected to reach 36.5 million tons in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.7% over the past five years. The global hydrogen production is expected to be nearly 100 million tons, growing by approximately 2.7% year-on-year [17][24]. - Hydrogen is primarily used in traditional industrial applications, with emerging sectors like transportation and metallurgy showing a compound growth rate of about 7.1%, significantly higher than the overall industry growth [8][21]. Policy Framework - Hydrogen energy has been recognized as a crucial component of the new energy system, with significant emphasis from top leadership. The formal inclusion of hydrogen in the energy category by the Energy Law in November 2024 is expected to enhance the industry's development [8][30]. - The government has set a phased target for 2027, focusing on the high-quality development of energy equipment, which will guide the hydrogen sector [30][34]. Cost Reduction Pathways - Multiple factors are contributing to the cost reduction of hydrogen, including: 1. Decreasing costs of green electricity, with projected costs for photovoltaic power dropping to 0.15-0.20 yuan/kWh, allowing green hydrogen costs to fall to 10.36-13.22 yuan/kg [8][40]. 2. Inclusion of electrolysis water hydrogen in the CCER program, which can shorten the investment payback period from 9.21 years to 8.62 years [8][46]. 3. Technological advancements leading to significant cost reductions in electrolyzers and fuel cells, with average prices decreasing by 11%-24% over recent years [8][49]. 4. Increased subsidies and pilot projects across the entire industry chain, which are expected to further drive down costs [8][9]. Industry Chain Development - The hydrogen production segment is expected to see a significant increase in electrolyzer bidding, with projections of over 4.5 GW by 2025, compared to 1.5 GW and 1.2 GW in 2023 and 2024, respectively [9]. - Storage and transportation remain bottlenecks, with ongoing efforts to develop a large-scale, low-cost, and safe hydrogen transport system [9][19]. - By the end of 2025, the number of hydrogen refueling stations in China is expected to increase by approximately 2.6 times compared to 2020, with a high proportion of comprehensive energy stations [9][20]. Investment Strategy - The report highlights several investment opportunities in the hydrogen sector, including companies that empower shareholders, pure hydrogen-related companies, and those with stable main businesses that view hydrogen as a potential growth point. Notable companies include Ice Wheel Environment, Yihua Tong, and Longjing Environmental Protection [10].