瑞达期货热轧卷板产业链日报-20260129

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - On Thursday, the HC2605 contract increased in price with rising positions. In terms of the macro - aspect, in the first month of the implementation of the steel export license policy, the market is experiencing "short - term pain" to find a balance under the new rules. Regarding supply and demand, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils has increased, with a capacity utilization rate of 78.99% and a production volume of 3.0921 billion tons; terminal demand has improved, and inventories continue to be depleted. Overall, the downstream demand for hot - rolled coils is relatively resilient. Coupled with the first round of price increases for coke, the prices of furnace materials have all increased, driving up costs and steel prices. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are rising, and the red bars are expanding. It is recommended for short - term trading and attention should be paid to risk control [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract is 3,308 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan; the position volume is 1,547,118 lots, up 29,468 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the HC contract is - 37,312 lots, down 18,077 lots. The HC5 - 10 contract spread is - 22 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan. The HC warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 193,068 tons, up 8,842 tons. The HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread is 151 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan [2] Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou is 3,310 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Guangzhou, it is 3,290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Wuhan, it remains at 3,310 yuan/ton; in Tianjin, it remains at 3,170 yuan/ton. The basis of the HC main contract is 2 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan. The price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou is 10 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 799 yuan/wet ton, up 6 yuan. The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei is 1,490 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan is 2,170 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Q235 billet in Hebei is 2,930 yuan/ton, unchanged. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 167.6285 million tons, up 2.1204 million tons. The inventory of coke at sample coking plants is 419,400 tons, up 14,600 tons. The inventory of coke at sample steel mills is 6.6199 million tons, up 117,900 tons. The inventory of billets in Hebei is 1.5875 million tons, up 25,500 tons [2] Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 78.66%, down 0.16%. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 85.53%, up 0.07%. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 3.0921 million tons, up 38,000 tons. The capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 78.99%, up 0.97%. The inventory of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 772,500 tons, up 6,100 tons. The social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities is 2.7833 million tons, down 28,100 tons. The monthly output of crude steel in China is 68.18 million tons, down 1.69 million tons. The net export volume of steel is 1078 million tons, up 130 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles is 3.296 million vehicles, down 235,600 vehicles; the monthly sales are 3.2722 million vehicles, down 156,800 vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners is 21.6289 million units, up 6.6029 million units. The monthly output of household refrigerators is 10.0115 million units, up 569,500 units. The monthly output of household washing machines is 11.975 million units, down 38,000 units [2] Industry News - The Federal Reserve announced to maintain the federal funds rate target range between 3.5% and 3.75%. Fed Chairman Powell said that if tariff inflation peaks and then falls, the policy can be loosened, and no one expects the next meeting to raise interest rates. Only one of the three leading building materials steel mills in Shandong Province has introduced a specific winter storage policy this year [2]