瑞达期货国债期货日报-20260129

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market sentiment has continued to improve as some negative factors have eased, but there is insufficient momentum for interest rates to continue to decline. In 2025, China's economic structural contradictions still need to be improved. In the next stage, facing significant external uncertainty pressure, the endogenous growth foundation of the economy needs to be further consolidated, and expanding domestic demand will become the policy focus. The issuance rhythm of interest - rate bonds in January was stable, alleviating market concerns about the supply pressure of long - term bonds. The large - scale net injection of MLF this month reduced the expected impact of a reserve requirement ratio cut within the first quarter. It is expected that interest rates will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, and the market is still waiting for new incremental information for directional selection [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - Futures Closing Prices and Volume: T主力收盘价108.250，涨幅0.06%，成交量83851，环比减少3528；TF主力收盘价105.875，涨幅0.01%，成交量61278，环比增加5250；TS主力收盘价102.394，涨幅0%，成交量27838，环比减少1924；TL主力收盘价112.170，涨幅0.07%，成交量83695，环比增加24158 [2]. - Futures Spreads: TL2603 - 2606价差 - 0.11，环比增加0.03；T2603 - 2606价差0.02，环比减少0.00；TF2603 - 2606价差 - 0.04，环比增加0.01；TS2603 - 2606价差 - 0.03，环比减少0.01；T03 - TL03价差 - 3.91，环比减少0.02；TF03 - T03价差 - 2.35，环比减少0.01；TS03 - T03价差 - 5.80，环比增加0.02；TS03 - TF03价差 - 3.45，环比增加0.02 [2]. - Futures Positions: T主力持仓量258604，环比增加11014；T前20名多头233281，环比增加8343；T前20名空头258196，环比增加14561；T前20名净空仓2219，环比增加2574；TF主力持仓量139222，环比减少1616；TF前20名多头141955，环比增加797；TF前20名空头160116，环比增加3319；TF前20名净空仓18161，环比增加2522；TS主力持仓量66047，环比减少1389；TS前20名多头53408，环比减少887；TS前20名空头60400，环比减少1424；TS前20名净空仓6992，环比减少537；TL主力持仓量136394，环比增加1416；TL前20名多头143176，环比增加2093；TL前20名空头150891，环比增加2477；TL前20名净空仓7715，环比增加384 [2]. 3.2 Bond Market Data - CTD Bond Net Prices: 250018.IB(6y）净价100.5813，涨幅0.0655；250025.IB(6y）净价99.0955，涨幅0；230014.IB(4y）净价104.7437，跌幅0.0109；240020.IB(4y)净价100.8844，涨幅0.0406；250017.IB(2y)净价100.0936，涨幅0.0079；220022.IB(2y)净价101.9589，涨幅0.0012；210005.IB(17y)净价126.7644，涨幅0.1635；210014.IB(18y)净价123.4442，涨幅0.1083 [2]. - Active Bond Yields: 1y国债活跃券收益率1.2950，涨幅0.25bp；3y国债活跃券收益率1.4100，跌幅1.00bp；5y国债活跃券收益率1.5700，跌幅1.25bp；7y国债活跃券收益率1.6860，跌幅1.30bp；10y国债活跃券收益率1.8075，跌幅1.55bp [2]. 3.3 Interest Rate Data - Short - term Interest Rates: 银质押隔夜利率1.3135，跌幅4.98bp；Shibor隔夜利率1.3680，涨幅0.20bp；银质押7天利率1.5726，涨幅2.29bp；Shibor7天利率1.5720，涨幅4.50bp；银质押14天利率1.5900，跌幅0.69bp；Shibor14天利率1.5910，跌幅0.50bp [2]. - LPR Interest Rates: 1y LPR利率3.00，涨幅0.00bp；5y LPR利率3.5，涨幅0.00bp [2]. 3.4 Public Market Operations - 发行规模3540亿和1438亿，到期规模2102亿，利率1.4%，期限7天 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Energy Industry: By the end of 2025, the cumulative installed power generation capacity in China was 3.89 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 16.1%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.2 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 35.4%; the installed capacity of wind power was 0.64 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.9%. In 2025, the cumulative average utilization hours of power generation equipment of power plants with a capacity of 6,000 kilowatts and above in China was 3,119 hours, a decrease of 312 hours compared with the same period of the previous year [2]. - Real Estate Industry: At the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, the balance of RMB real estate loans was 51.95 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%, with a decrease of 963.6 billion yuan for the whole year. At the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, the balance of real estate development loans was 13.16 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0%, with a decrease of 357.5 billion yuan for the whole year. The balance of personal housing loans was 37.01 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%, with a decrease of 676.8 billion yuan for the whole year [3]. - Federal Reserve: The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75% unchanged, pausing after three consecutive 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts, which was in line with market expectations. Fed Chair candidate Waller supported a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut, consistent with the stance of Trump - "appointed" director Milan. The Federal Reserve stated in its statement that the unemployment rate had shown initial signs of stabilization, inflation was still at a relatively high level, and the uncertainty of the economic outlook remained high. Fed Chair Powell said at a press conference that raising interest rates was not anyone's basic assumption for the next step, and he did not believe that the Federal Reserve would lose its independence and would advise the next Fed Chair to stay away from politics [3]. 3.6 Market Performance and Outlook - Market Performance: On Thursday, the yields of treasury bond cash bonds were strong in the short - term and weak in the medium - and long - term. The yields to maturity of 1 - 3Y bonds decreased by about 0.5 - 1.0bp, and the yields to maturity of 10Y and 30Y bonds increased by about 0.35 and 0.50bp respectively to 1.82% and 2.25%. On Thursday, treasury bond futures strengthened collectively. The main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL rose by 0.01%, 0.01%, 0.06%, and 0.07% respectively. The weighted average interest rate of DR007 rebounded to around 1.59% [4]. - Domestic Fundamentals: In the fourth quarter of 2025, China's GDP increased by 4.5% year - on - year, and the annual GDP growth rate reached 5.0%, successfully achieving the expected growth target. In December, industrial added value was higher than market expectations, the scale of fixed - asset investment continued to shrink, and social retail sales were lower than the previous value. The financial data in December exceeded expectations, the growth rate of social financing continued to decline, and government bonds caused a large drag; credit increased slightly less, the marginal demand for medium - and long - term corporate financing improved, but the trend of household de - leveraging continued, and credit performance remained weak. The profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China in December increased by 5.3% year - on - year, and the annual profits achieved positive growth, reversing the three - year downward trend [4]. - Overseas Situation: The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate unchanged in January, in line with market expectations, and stated in its statement that current inflation was still high, employment growth was sluggish, but concerns about the downward risk of the labor force were alleviated [4]. 3.7 Key Points to Watch - 1/29 21:30 US initial jobless claims for the week ending January 24 - 1/30 18:00 Eurozone's preliminary GDP for the fourth quarter of 2025 and December unemployment rate [4]