钢材&铁矿石日报：商品情绪偏暖，钢矿震荡走高-20260129

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Rebar: The main contract price of rebar fluctuated higher with a daily increase of 1.12%, and both trading volume and open interest expanded. Currently, the supply of rebar is stable while demand is weak, and the fundamentals remain weak. Steel prices are under pressure during the off - season. The positive factor is the warm commodity sentiment, and steel prices are expected to stabilize in a volatile manner. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [5][35]. - Hot - rolled coil: The main contract price of hot - rolled coil showed a strong - side fluctuation with a daily increase of 0.79%, and both trading volume and open interest expanded. At present, both supply and demand of hot - rolled coil are at a high level, and the fundamentals are weakly stable. However, there are concerns about demand. If demand weakens, it may intensify industrial contradictions and put pressure on prices. The positive factor is the good commodity sentiment, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to demand performance [5][35]. - Iron ore: The main contract price of iron ore rose strongly with a daily increase of 1.78%, trading volume increased while open interest decreased. Currently, overseas ore shipments have stabilized, port inventories are high, and there is still pressure on ore supply. Ore demand is weakly stable, and the fundamentals of iron ore are weak, putting pressure on ore prices. The positive factor is the warm commodity sentiment, and the price is expected to maintain a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to steel mills' restocking [5][36]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Transportation investment: As of January 29, 14 provinces have announced their 2026 transportation plan investments, with a total investment of over 1.5 trillion yuan. Six provinces have transportation plan investments of over 100 billion yuan, and Jiangsu Province has the highest planned transportation fixed - asset investment of 240 billion yuan in 2026 [7]. - Real - estate policy: Shanghai has extended the validity period of the "Notice on Several Issues Concerning the Pilot Project of Levying Property Tax on Some Individual Housing in this Municipality" to January 27, 2031 [8]. - Australian mining company: Australian mining company MinRes had strong iron ore production and shipment in the fourth quarter of 2025. The total iron ore production of its Onslow Iron and Pilbara Hub projects reached 11.5 million tons (100% basis), and the total shipment volume reached 11.1 million tons (100% basis). The Onslow project had excellent cost management, with a FOB unit cost of 50 Australian dollars per wet ton (equivalent to about 33 US dollars per wet ton) in the fourth quarter of 2025, lower than the lower limit of the fiscal - year guidance range [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - Black - metal spot quotes: The report provides spot quotes for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, and other black - metal products in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average, as well as information on main - variety price differences, sea freight, SGX swaps, and iron ore price indices [11]. 3.3 Futures Market | Variety | Active Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change (%) | High Price | Low Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open - interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | - | 3,157 | 1.12 | 3,159 | 3,120 | 1,026,450 | 419,194 | 1,785,380 | 40,974 | | Hot - rolled coil | - | 3,308 | 0.79 | 3,313 | 3,277 | 434,547 | 150,771 | 1,547,118 | 29,468 | | Iron ore | - | 798.5 | 1.78 | 800.0 | 781.0 | 307,714 | 89,896 | 555,392 | - 9,221 | [13] 3.4 Related Charts - Steel inventory: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mills + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil, as well as the seasonal inventory of 45 ports' iron ore [15][16][19][21]. - Iron - ore inventory: Charts show the inventory of 45 ports' iron ore, 247 steel mills' iron - ore inventory, and domestic mine iron - concentrate inventory [23][24][26]. - Steel - mill production: Charts show the blast - furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, and the profit - and - loss situation of 75 building - material independent electric - arc - furnace steel mills [28][30][31][34]. 3.5后市研判 - Rebar: The supply - demand pattern continues to weaken, inventory growth expands. Supply is stable at a high level but is expected to decrease as short - process steel mills shut down for the Spring Festival. Demand continues to weaken, and the off - season weak - demand pattern remains unchanged, putting pressure on steel prices. The positive factor is the warm commodity sentiment, and steel prices are expected to stabilize in a volatile manner. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [35]. - Hot - rolled coil: Supply and demand have changed. Supply is at a high level with high inventory and pressure. Demand shows some resilience but there are concerns. The positive factor is the good commodity sentiment, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to demand performance [35]. - Iron ore: The supply - demand pattern remains weak, and inventory is rising at a high level. Ore demand will continue to be weak, and the positive factor is steel mills' continuous restocking. Supply - side positive effects are limited. The price is expected to maintain a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to steel mills' restocking [36].