螺纹热卷日报-20260129

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel futures market maintained a volatile and slightly stronger trend today, with overall spot trading being generally favorable, mainly due to futures-spot purchases, while downstream purchases were poor. Prices generally rose following the futures market, and the basis narrowed. - This week's data from Steel Union showed that the production of the five major steel products accelerated, with hot-rolled coils increasing production faster than rebar. The total steel inventory accelerated the process of inventory accumulation, with rebar accumulating inventory while hot-rolled coils were still reducing inventory. Overall, the social inventory pressure was greater than the factory inventory. - Recently, as the weather has turned cold, downstream construction sites have gradually shut down, leading to a decline in construction steel demand. Although steel exports have recently declined, there is still a demand for inventory replenishment in the manufacturing industry before the Spring Festival, and the demand for hot-rolled coils continues to grow, performing better than the same period last year. - Coal mines increased production in January, and Mongolian coal imports increased rapidly, but steel mills continued to replenish their inventories. It is expected that coal mines may gradually take holidays in February. The structural shortage of PB powder has not been resolved, and the first quarter is also the traditional off-season for iron ore shipments. Steel mills have a rigid demand for inventory replenishment, providing cost support. - Recently, molten iron production has continued to recover, supporting raw material costs. However, the marginal decline in winter demand and continuous inventory accumulation have also limited the further upward space for steel prices. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate following macro - sentiment before the Spring Festival. [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Information 3.1.1 Rebar - Futures: RB05 was at 3157 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan from yesterday; RB10 was at 3203 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan; RB01 was at 3228 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan. The 05 - contract rebar's profit on the futures market was - 128 yuan, down 9 yuan; the 10 - contract was - 81 yuan, down 6 yuan; the 01 - contract was - 72 yuan, down 7 yuan. [2] - Spot: The price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3230 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; Nanjing Xicheng was 3360 yuan/ton, unchanged; Shandong Shiheng was 3270 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tangshan Tanggang was 3090 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The profit from adjusted rolling products was 40 yuan, up 10 yuan; the profit of East China rebar was - 104 yuan, up 12 yuan; the profit of Tangshan rebar was - 282 yuan, up 5 yuan; the profit of Shandong rebar was - 446 yuan, down 110 yuan; the profit of Tangshan billet was - 217 yuan, down 4 yuan; the profit of East China electric - arc furnace at peak electricity was - 166 yuan, down 5 yuan; at off - peak electricity was - 7 yuan, down 5 yuan. [2] 3.1.2 Hot - Rolled Coils - Futures: HC05 was at 3308 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan; HC10 was at 3330 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan; HC01 was at 3350 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan. The 05 - contract hot - rolled coil's profit on the futures market was 23 yuan, down 15 yuan; the 10 - contract was 46 yuan, down 11 yuan; the 01 - contract was 50 yuan, down 11 yuan. [2] - Spot: The price of Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil was 3170 yuan/ton, unchanged; Lecong Rigang was 3290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; Shanghai Angang was 3290 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The profit of Tianjin hot - rolled coil was - 369 yuan, down 5 yuan; the profit of East China hot - rolled coil was - 137 yuan, up 13 yuan. [2] 3.2 Market Judgment - Related Prices: The spot price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3230 yuan (+20), Beijing Jingye was 3150 yuan (+10), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil was 3290 yuan (+20), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil was 3170 yuan (unchanged). [5] - Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The market will maintain a volatile trend. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to short the hot - rolled coil to coking coal ratio at high prices, and continue to hold the short position of the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see. [6][7][8] - Important Information - At the beginning of the new year, the container ship market has once again witnessed a boom in ship orders. Evergreen Marine, a shipping giant in Taiwan, China, has placed orders for 23 ships at two mainland shipyards with an investment of tens of billions. - The overall production of the five major steel products increased by 3.58 tons. The factory inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 0.84 tons month - on - month, the social inventory increased by 22.27 tons, and the total inventory increased by 21.43 tons. [9][10][12] 3.3 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including those showing the basis, price differentials, and profit margins of rebar and hot - rolled coils for different contracts, as well as the cash profits of various steel products and the cost of electric - arc furnaces. [17][19][23]