银河期货油脂日报-20260129

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Galaxy Futures' Daily Report on Oils and Fats [1] - Report Date: January 29, 2026 [1] Group 2: Data Analysis - Spot Prices and Basis: The closing price of soybean oil on the 2605 contract was 8382 yuan, up 56 yuan; palm oil was 9362 yuan, up 92 yuan; and rapeseed oil was 9446 yuan, up 116 yuan. The basis of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil showed different changes in different regions [2]. - Monthly Spread: The 5 - 9 monthly spread of soybean oil was 88 yuan, up 2 yuan; palm oil was 68 yuan, up 8 yuan; and rapeseed oil was 69 yuan, up 10 yuan [2]. - Cross - Variety Spread: The 05 - contract Y - P spread was (980) yuan, down 36 yuan; OI - Y was 1064 yuan, up 60 yuan; OI - P was 84 yuan, up 24 yuan; and the oil - meal ratio was 2.99, down 0.001 [2]. - Import Profit: The CNF price of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia was 1130 US dollars, and the FOB price of rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was 1046 US dollars, with a negative import profit [2]. - Weekly Commercial Inventory: In the 4th week of 2026, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 95.6 million tons, down 0.73 million tons from last week; palm oil was 74.2 million tons, down 0.38 million tons; and rapeseed oil was 25.2 million tons, down 2.3 million tons [2]. Group 3: Fundamental Analysis - International Market: Anec data showed that Brazil exported 267,642 tons of soybeans from January 18 - 24 [4]. - Domestic Market - Palm Oil: The palm oil futures price fluctuated slightly higher, up nearly 1%. As of January 23, 2026, the commercial inventory was 74.23 million tons, down 0.51% from last week. The basis was stable to weak, and the import profit was inverted. It was expected to maintain a high - inventory state with limited upside space [4]. - Domestic Market - Soybean Oil: The soybean oil futures price fluctuated slightly higher. The actual soybean crushing volume last week was 2.1021 million tons, and the inventory was 95.6 million tons, down 0.76% from last week. The basis was stable. It was expected to have limited upside space [4][6]. - Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil: The rapeseed oil futures price fluctuated higher, up over 1%. The coastal rapeseed crushing volume last week was 0 tons, and the inventory was 25.2 million tons, down 2.3 million tons. The import profit was inverted. It was expected to continue de - stocking, and the near - month contract had limited downside space [6]. Group 4: Trading Strategies - Single - Side Trading: Short - term oils and fats are expected to fluctuate higher, but due to many uncertainties and no prominent contradictions, those without positions are advised to wait and not chase the high or rush to short [8]. - Arbitrage: Adopt the strategy of buying the March contract and selling the May contract of rapeseed oil at low prices [8]. - Options: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [8]. Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes 8 figures showing the basis of different oils and fats and the monthly spreads and cross - variety spreads of different contracts from 2017 - 2026 [11][12][15][19]